A Study On The Impact Of Risks In Central Asian Countries On China's Direct Investment In Them

Since the "One Belt And One Road" initiative was put forward,the pace of Chinese enterprises' integration into economic globalization has been further accelerated,and their status in the global capital exporting countries has been continuously rising.In just four years,they have become the second largest stock of outbound investment in the world.The number of established overseas enterprises has increased from 25,400 to 39,200,and the total assets of enterprises have exceeded us ?6 trillion.Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are located along the"One Belt And One Road" and have rich oil,gas and mineral resources.With the implementation of "One Belt And One Road" related policies,China's investment conditions in the region further mature;In recent years,the stock of investment in the five central Asian countries has maintained an average annual growth rate of 9.8%over the past four years.In terms of flows,Kazakhstan has made significant progress,with $2.07 billion invested in 2017,ranking eighth.However,in this region,there are huge differences in economic development level,religious status,culture and history,as well as in political competition and terrorism.Therefore,the risk of the five central Asian countries is an important factor to be considered in the investment process.In this paper,five central Asian countries are taken as the research objects,and data of nearly 10 years are selected,including 27 national risk assessment indicators.After standardizing the data,the entropy method is used for weight assignment,and four national risk assessment indicators of the first level,namely political risk,economic risk,financial risk and social risk,are calculated.Secondly,in the four types of country risk index is calculated on the basis of introducing the five central Asian countries,with China's gross domestic product,the imports and exports between the national strategic assets and natural resources endowment and investment freedom indicators such as control variable,panel data fixed effects model and USES this model to analyze the our country direct investment in the region nearly 10 years of risk appetite.The results show that China's direct investment to central Asia shows the characteristics of political and social risk aversion,economic and financial risk preference.In the analysis of specific countries,it is found that China's risk preference and sensitivity to the investment of the five countries are different,especially the change of financial risk is the most sensitive.In order to effectively reduce the possibility of investment losses,it is necessary for the Chinese government and enterprises to prevent and avoid the economic and financial risks of investing in the five central Asian countries by improving the bilateral investment guarantee mechanism,constructing the advisory service system,strengthening financial credit support,introducing commercial insurance institutions and adopting country-specific investment.