Research On Credit Risk Based On The Capital Structure Of Small And Medium Enterprise Board Listed Companies

Shenzhen stock exchange established SME board on May 27,2004.Since then,small and medium-sized enterprises have made rapid and vigorous development.As of February 2020,973 companies have successfully listed on the SME board.Small and medium-sized board listed companies have expanded their financing channels with the help of small and medium-sized board market,and achieved rapid development.But at the same time,the characteristics of high risk and high growth of small and medium-sized listed companies are particularly prominent.Therefore,it is very important to study the capital structure and credit risk of small and medium-sized listed companies.Firstly,this paper expounds the research background and significance of capital structure theory and credit risk theory,and expounds the methods and conclusions of previous literature on capital structure and credit risk research;secondly,this paper reasonably selects the influencing factors of capital structure of small and medium-sized board listed companies for empirical research,and explores the influencing factors of capital structure of small and medium-sized board listed companies;thirdly Based on the capital structure of small and medium-sized board listed companies,this paper empirically studies the credit risk level of small and medium-sized board listed companies.Finally,it summarizes the conclusions of this paper,aiming at the current situation of small and medium-sized board listed companies,and puts forward suggestions to optimize the capital structure of small and medium-sized board listed companies and reduce the level of credit risk.First of all,this paper expounds the research background and significance of the capital structure theory and credit risk theory of small and medium-sized listed companies,and expounds the capital structure theory and credit risk theory in literature.It points out two directions of the research on capital structure in the academic circle:one is the research on the mainstream theory of capital structure;the other is the empirical research on the determinants of capital structure,indicating the methods and conclusions used by the academic circle to study the theory of corporate credit risk.Secondly,based on the research results of previous literature and the characteristics of small and medium-sized listed companies,six explanatory variables are proposed:risk,growth,company size,non debt tax shield,profitability and asset guarantee value.This paper uses Python language tools to conduct multiple regression analysis,significance test of model and coefficient,multiple collinearity test of model and independence test of model for the influencing factor model of capital structure of small and medium-sized listed companies.After passing the model test,the following conclusions are drawn:from the perspective of the influence direction of capital structure on capital structure,the company scale,asset guarantee value,risk are positively related to the asset liability ratio of small and medium-sized board companies;profitability,non debt tax shield,growth are negatively related to the asset liability ratio of small and medium-sized board companies;from the perspective of the influence degree of capital structure on capital structure Non debt tax shield(-2.08)>profitability(-1.36)>risk(0.63)>Company size(0.2)>asset guarantee value(0.1 9)>growth(-0.08).which indicates that among the factors influencing the capital structure of listed companies on the small and medium-sized board,non debt tax shield,profitability and risk factors have a greater impact on the capital structure of the company,and the impact of company size and asset guarantee value on the capital structure is the same To a lesser extent,growth has the least impact on capital structure.Next,it analyzes the channels of non debt tax shield,profitability,risk,company size,asset guarantee value and growth in real economy.Thirdly,the previous literature only studies the influencing factors of capital structure,not the validity and rationality of capital structure,and whether the indicators of capital structure and influencing factors of capital structure can reduce the level of corporate credit risk.In view of the above deficiencies,this paper makes a pioneering and innovative research,further studies the relationship between various indicators and credit risk,studies whether asset liability ratio,risk,growth,company size,non debt tax shield,profitability,asset guarantee value indicators can comprehensively affect the credit risk of small and medium-sized board listed companies,and whether they can effectively predict the credit risk level of small and medium-sized board listed companies.In the samples selected in this study,the main credit risk ratings of SMEs are AAA,AA+,AA,AA-,a+,a-,a-,BBB,CC and C respectively.Next,take the average value of the influencing factors of the asset liability ratio and asset liability ratio of the companies belonging to each rating,and study the relationship between the asset liability ratio,risk,growth,company size,non debt tax shield,profitability,asset guarantee value and the company's credit risk.The study finds that there is no obvious correlation between a single index and the listed companies on the small and medium-sized board.Therefore,it is necessary to It is necessary to build a model to further study the comprehensive effect of asset liability ratio,profitability,company size,asset guarantee value,non debt tax shield and growth indicators on the credit risk of small and medium-sized listed companies.Based on this,this paper divides the main credit risk rating into two categor-ies:no credit risk category and credit risk category.Among them,companies with AAA,AA+,AA,AA-as the main credit risk rating are defined as non credit risk category and represented by the number 1;companies with a,BBB,BB,B,CCC,CC,C as the main credit risk category and represented by the number 0.Using the model of AdaBoost machine learning algorithm,this paper studies whether the asset liability ratio,profitability,company size,asset guarantee value,non debt tax shield,growth and risk of listed companies on the small and medium-sized board can effectively measure and predict the level of corporate credit risk.The conclusion of the study is that the comprehensive effect of profitability,company size,asset guarantee value,non debt tax shield,growth,risk and asset liability ratio can reflect the credit risk level of small and medium-sized board listed companies more truly,and can effectively predict the credit risk level of small and medium-sized board listed companies,among which,growth,risk and asset liability ratio can reflect the degree of response maximum.In the selected samples,based on the capital structure,capital structure influencing factors and credit risk data,the accuracy of the credit risk measurement model of small and medium-sized listed companies on the board is 0.776,AUC value is 0.78,which shows that the model can use asset liability ratio,profitability,company size,asset guarantee value,non debt tax shield,growth and risk Indicators to effectively measure and predict the credit risk level of small and medium-sized listed companies.Finally,the conclusion of this paper is summarized,and based on the current situation of Listed Companies in China's small and medium-sized board market,suggestions are put forward to optimize the capital structure of Listed Companies in small and medium-sized board,improve the credit rating of the company's main body,and reduce the level of corporate credit risk.