Study On Typical Facts And Influencing Factors Of Consumption Fluctuation In Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the consumption fluctuation in 40 countries and determines its influencing factors,which is an important theoretical problem concerned by many economists.In this paper,by using the HP bandpass filter data processing model,panel data processing in different countries into a smooth data,and combing the typical facts,and under the panel regression model regression in the different economic indexes and the main results are:for the developing countries and developed countries,consumption fluctuation affected by fluctuations in government spending is always presents significant effect.The first chapter mainly describes the research background and relevant significance of this paper,and expounds the main research ideas and methods.The second chapter expounds the research status of consumption fluctuation at home and abroad,and at the same time sorts out the related research on consumption fluctuation,which can be mainly divided into the typical fact research of consumption fluctuation,the research on the influencing factors of consumption fluctuation and the differential research of partial consumption fluctuation.Paper third chapter began to use the HP band-pass filtering method to deal with 40 countries of panel data,draw a national consumption fluctuations,fluctuations in output,government expenditure,and the country is divided into the developed countries and developing countries is compared,and it is concluded that consumption fluctuates more than the developed countries in the developing world consumption fluctuations of typical facts.In the fourth chapter of this paper,the panel regression model is used to construct a regression model for the consumption fluctuations and relative consumption fluctuations of the explained variables,including the fluctuations of the explanatory variables government expenditure and relative government expenditure,and other control variables such as trade volume,GDP and government expenditure.At the same time,in order to solve the endogeneity problem,two instrumental variables about the government's political system are used to determine the impact on the fluctuation of government expenditure.Finally,it is concluded that both the fluctuation of government expenditure and the relative fluctuation of government expenditure have significant influence on the fluctuation of consumption.The fifth chapter is the main conclusions and policy Suggestions based on the above research results.The main innovation of this paper is the analysis method using HP bandpass filter method and tool variable method.Before the typical facts of consumption fluctuation are studied and the regression model of influencing factors of consumption fluctuation is constructed,the data are smoothed by HP(hodrick-prescott)bandpass filter,and the data of consumption fluctuation,output fluctuation and government expenditure fluctuation are obtained.At the same time,in order to reduce the endogeneity problem in the empirical study,this paper introduces the analysis method of instrumental variable method.The instrumental variables of this paper are the political system that will affect the government expenditure,respectively whether the country has presidential system and whether the country's electoral system has multi-election system.After determining the instrumental variables,the empirical analysis model shows that the instrumental variables have a significant impact on government expenditure,and the impact on other control variables and explained variables is not significant.