Research On The Construction Of Transaction Volume Prediction Model Of P2P Industry Based On Baidu Index

With the popularization of the concept of "Internet plus",more and more industries combine their traditional businesses with the Internet.Under such a background,Internet finance emerges at the historic moment.As one of the typical representatives of Internet inclusive finance,P2P online lending,after more than 10 years of rapid development,has taken an increasingly important part in China's Internet finance market.Therefore,the study of P2P online lending has theoretical and practical significance for consumer investment decisions,P2P online lending platform management and the government's improvement of P2P regulatory policies.In recent years,with the development of Internet technology,the search engine service is more to the more perfect,80%of consumers tend to need to get their information via the Internet,therefore can from web search engines(Baidu,360 search,Google,etc.)to obtain consumer's search data,through the analysis of consumer search data,dig to the attention of consumers and demand,for a industry development trend of the research is of great importance.The prediction of transaction volume in P2P industry is conducive to the government administration to monitor the whole industry from a macro perspective,control the development trend of the industry,and formulate corresponding policies.In a micro perspective,it is conducive to the P2P online lending platform to formulate corporate strategies and improve competitiveness.Volume of research on P2P lending industry,the existing literature is mostly focused on the micro perspective,through the analysis of the P2P lending of single platform or lending to specify some P2P network platform platform features and user to predict the volume of lending to P2P network platform,the platform of the selected are well-known public platform,for other platforms as well as the overall research rarely P2P lending industry.This paper aims to study the relationship between users' search behavior and P2P industry trading volume under the background of big data,and predict the development trend of P2P industry trading volume through users' search behavior.Firstly,by analyzing the theory of information search behavior and the five stages of consumer purchase decision-making process,and then exploring the guiding role of search behavior in the five stages of P2P user investment decision-making,a transaction volume prediction model of P2P industry based on search behavior was established.Then use the Python language design web crawler program,using the web crawlers to obtain relevant search keywords to Baidu index data,and test data search keywords and website to get out of the house of net lending volume of P2P industry Pearson(Pearson correlation between data,through correlation filter for P2P industry volume related search keywords,and according to the correlation coefficient of the synthesis of the corresponding search keyword search index.And then establish a synthetic index and P2P search keywords industry volume of regression model,to determine the long-term cointegration relationship between the two,using cointegration relation between synthetic index model is established,and the projections for P2P industry volume,and then establish P2P industry volume prediction model based on time series,finally the synthesis search keyword search index combined with time series model,a new hybrid model.By comparing the prediction results of the three models,it is found that the goodness of fit and prediction accuracy of the mixed model with the keyword data are higher than those of the other two models.Based on the theory of information search behavior and consumer purchase decision,this paper discusses the influencing factors of P2P users' search behavior and the influence of search behavior on the transaction volume of P2P industry,and builds a prediction model of transaction volume of P2P industry based on search behavior.Again by designing a Python web crawlers to obtain the keywords of Baidu index data,P2P industry volume prediction research train of thought in the economic and social research in the field of generality,come out of the theoretical results and the research conclusion can enrich the study of the existing P2P lending,other industries can also be used for the subsequent prediction of academic research form for reference.