| Bitcoin is a hot topic in recent years.Bitcoin bubble is also the focus of discussion.In just a few years,Bitcoin has risen from a penny to a sky-high price of nearly $20,000.Within less than a year,Bitcoin returned to $3,700.Whether Bitcoin is valuable or not,and where its value lies,people have different opinions on these issues.Many people see Bitcoin as a product of Internet finance.However,Bitcoin is an asset that circulates on a block chain,which is a distributed network.Using this distributed network for reference and imitation,more than 2000 digital assets have been born,and they will be affected by the price fluctuation of Bitcoin.In this thesis,bitcoin is taken as the research object,and the price bubble phenomenon of special currency is studied.Firstly,this thesis introduces the basic situation of Bitcoin and block chain.This thesis discusses the emergence background of Bitcoin and the network characteristics of block chains,including decentralization,untouchability of information,de-trust,autonomy,openness,transparency and anonymity.On this basis,the monetary,securities and information attributes of Bitcoin are summarized.In order to identify bitcoin price bubbles,this thesis selects the total market capitalization and opening price data of bitcoins from January 2016 to November 2018,and uses statistical methods,Metcalf equation,JB test and KS test to analyze bitcoin price bubbles.The conclusion of the statistics is that the price fluctuation of bitcoin is too large,far exceeding the fluctuation of gold and stock prices,and there is probably bubble phenomenon.The result of Metcalf equation analysis is that the price of Bitcoin deviates from the intrinsic value determined by the number of users.The results of JB test and KS test show that the distribution of bitcoin total market value does not obey normal distribution,and there is bubble phenomenon.Next,this thesis analyzes the reasons for the price bubble.By analyzing the relationship between the price of bitcoin and Google's search heat,it is proposed that there is a high expectation,which is the fundamental reason for the bitcoin price bubble.By analyzing the relationship between the daily opening price of bitcoin and the volume of trading within 24 hours of this day,it is proposed that speculative psychology is one of the direct reasons for the price bubble of bitcoin.In addition,this thesis analyzes the distribution of bitcoin trading volume in each exchange in 24 hours,and thus considers that price manipulation exists in bitcoin market,which is another direct cause of bitcoin price bubble.Next,this thesis analyzes the harm and Inspiration of bitcoin price bubbles.The bubble of bitcoin price directly triggered the bubble of digital asset market,increased financial risk and economy,and brought negative effects on social ethos,block chain industry and so on.Although Bitcoin has the characteristics of de-centralization,security and non-tampering,it has a certain degree of progress and is asset.However,the existence of bitcoin price bubbles makes it difficult to assume monetary functions,so bitcoin can only be an encrypted digital asset,rather than currency.In the face of the bitcoin price bubble phenomenon,this thesis believes that the exchange is a place for bitcoin transactions and a place for bubbles to generate,and digital currency exchanges must be regulated.The scope of supervision ranges from the establishment of the exchange to the trading of the currency on the exchange.Investors who purchase encrypted digital assets,as well as the operators of the exchanges,must pay taxes,thereby regulating and suppressing the bubble.Finally,this thesis summarizes the phenomenon of bitcoin and its price bubble,then puts forward the prospect of the development of encrypted digital currency.The research in this thesis makes a detailed analysis and summary of the characteristics of Bitcoin and blockchain,which is beneficial to people to understand the essence and characteristics of Bitcoin.This thesis makes an empirical analysis of the price of Bitcoin,and proposes the bubble phenomenon,which has certain theoretical significance for the recognition of asset price bubble.This thesis analyzes three reasons for the bitcoin price bubble:anticipation,speculative psychology and price manipulation.On this basis,some inspiration of the bitcoin price bubble is put forward.Among them,includes some of the recommendations for the regulation of digital currency exchanges,which have certain realistic meaning for regulating digital currency exchanges,resisting bitcoin price bubbles,and protecting bitcoin investors. |
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