| With the birth and diffusion of blockchain technology,traditional investment methods can no longer meet people’s investment needs.Investors hope to find a new era financial product that can optimize portfolio allocation and balance income and risk.As a result,bitcoin,as the world’s first decentralized distributed anonynous digital currency,has attracted extensive attention from investors since its launch in 2009.The decentralization of bitcoin can well avoid the policy intervention of the government,which reduces the possibility of the government to issue excessive currency in order to pursue higher seigniorage or change the economic situation.The distributed database management and cryptographic design of bitcoin can also better ensure the security and stability of currency circulation.However,some scholars have questioned the operation mechanism of bitcoin,believing that bitcoin is not a currency but a new type of ponzi scheme with great credit risk and systemic risk.At the same time,the price of bitcoin has also produced violent fluctuations in the past five years,and more and more investors believe that bitcoin has been a tool for speculation.Based on this,this paper focuses on the influencing factors of bitcoin price fluctuations.Firstly,the monetary attributes of bitcoin will be explored from the perspective of monetary functions.Then,the price trend of bitcoin over the past five years will be divided into three stages:the u-shaped growth stage from April 2014 to April 2017;Explosive growth period from April 2017 to December 2017;The price crash phase from December 2017 to January2019.This paper will analyze the correlation between the daily price of bitcoin against USD and the daily price of USD,daily price of Yen,WTI crude oil,gold futures,30-year Treasury bond and ether.For each stage,the scatter trend diagram,broken line trend diagram,linear correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix are made,and the following conclusions are drawn:In the first stage,the price drop of bitcoin was mainly dominated by the panic caused by the collapse of crude oil price and the bankruptcy of MT.Gox exchange.However,along with the continuous strengthening of the dollar price and the recognition of the legitimacy of bitcoin by the US government,bitcoin showed a u-shaped rebound trend.The price of bitcoin is highly correlated with the price of USD and WTI crude oil.In the second stage,the price of bitcoin is highly correlated with the price of ether and the price of WTI crUde oil.At this stage,market investors took advantage of the unique supply mechanism of bitcoin to conduct crazy hoarding behavior,which resulted in a large number of bubbles in the price of bitcoin.In the third stage,there is a highly positive correlation between bitcoin price and ether price.During this period,governments around the world strengthened the supervision of digital currencies,and a number of incidents of theft of digital currency trading platforms led to the bursting of the bitcoin price bubble.This article through to the currency monetary attribute,currency fluctuations in the price of different stages of factor analysis,hope to be able to explain part of the reason for the fluctuations of price.This paper will also givesomesuggestionson the development of bitcoin regulatory system.The conclusion of this paper can provide a good reference and help for investors to invest in bitcoin market in the future. |
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