The Monetary Policy,Bank Credit And Asset Price Bubbles

China's indirect financing mode has made the bank credit became an important factor to drive asset price bubbles.These funds have "gone from real to virtual",and have been idling in the stock market and property market,which has accumulated huge systemic financial risks.Therefore,based on the asset price theory,the vector error correction model and cointegration model are used to systematically measure the trend and severity of asset price bubbles represented by the stock market and the property market during the whole research period.The positive and negative values of heterogeneous bubbles are compared,and the distribution characteristics of their different time points are compared,as to reveal the time frequency linkage of asset bubbles in the stock market and the real estate market.And differences.Then,the nonlinear Markoff zone transformation method is introduced to divide the asset price bubble into three zones,namely,the latent period,the expansion period and the breakup period of bubbles.The feedback mechanism of asset price bubbles and the reverse feedback mechanism based on bank credit leverage are explored in the process of the dynamic evolution of bubbles,and then the interest rate and money supply of asset price bubbles under different district systems and the same district system are discussed.This paper compares the effectiveness of quantitative tools and price tools,and puts forward some suggestions for monetary policy.It is found that asset price bubbles have strong feedback effects under different market conditions.The effect of interest rate changes on asset price bubbles exceeds the money supply in terms of quantity and duration,but shows obvious nonlinear characteristics in different regions.The effect of monetary policy on the real estate bubble is much stronger than that of the stock price bubbles in most of the time.The blind entry of bank credit capital will lead to the rise of financial leverage,triggering the stock market turbulence and the real estate bubble expansion,exacerbating the rotation effect between the two cities.The conclusion shows that paying attention to credit policy and reducing market liquidity are effective means to control asset price bubbles.Whether using price type or quantitative monetary instrument,the implementation of monetary policy is the best when the bubble is in a low or latent period,and once the stock market and the property market run into an overheated period,the effect of monetary policy control will be weakened.Therefore,we should try to keep the asset price bubble of the housing market and stock market at a moderate level,in order to better play the price type.Quantitative monetary policy to curb asset price bubbles and maintain the smooth operation of the economy.