A Comparative Study On The Effects Of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools Of The United States In The Post-crisis Era

Unconventional monetary policy is to change market expectations and stimulate economic recovery by expanding the scale of the balance sheet to inject liquidity into the market,changing the structure of the balance sheet,actively communicating with the market and making commitments.Among them,as a kind of unconventional monetary policy,quantitative easing was first implemented by Japan in 2001 to ease the domestic economic situation of tightening.Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the United States has successively implemented four rounds of large-scale asset purchase,distorted operation and other measures;and forward-looking guidance refers to the central bank's release of information about the orientation of future monetary policy to the public,including the central bank's prediction or commitment to the adjustment of policy interest rates,which plays a role in guiding the public's expectations.Through the implementation of unconventional monetary policy,the U.S.successfully passed the financial crisis and brought the U.S.economy back to the level before the financial crisis.At the same time,after the recovery of the U.S.economy,the Federal Reserve gradually carried out the operation of monetary policy normalization.Therefore,the in-depth analysis and research on the practice of the unconventional monetary policy and the arrangement of the withdrawal of the unconventional monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will help us to have a clearer understanding of its impact on the variables of the financial market and the macroeconomic situation,master the mechanism of the policy,the effect and limitations of the policy,and provide valuable opinions for the implementation of the decision on whether to implement similar policies in China.This paper makes a detailed theoretical analysis of conventional and unconventional monetary policy,and empirically tests the implementation effect and exit effect of unconventional monetary.policy.Firstly,it introduces the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the meaning of the unconventional monetary policy,including basic theory introduction,meaning,implementation background,policy practice and so on.Then the transmission mechanism of conventional and unconventional monetary policy is analyzed theoretically.Then we use the VECM model to analyze the impact of money supply M2 and federal funds rate on output,price and unemployment rate in the three periods of 2003.01-2008.08,2009.09-2015.11 and 2014.11-2019.06,that is,before,during and after the financial crisis.The results show that before the financial crisis,the money supply M2 and interest rate in the United States play a significant role in promoting the macro-economy,but the effect of interest rate was more obvious and faster.During the financial crisis,money supply M2 had a significant impact on output,unemployment rate and price,while the federal funds rate had little effect.After the financial crisis,money supply M2 and federal funds rate have an impact on output,price and unemployment rate,but the impact has been greatly reduced compared with that before the financial crisis.So at this time,the policy impact is limited.