Research On Band Default Warning Model Construction Of Listed Companies In China

In recent years,China’s bond market has developed rapidly,and the scale of bond issuance has continued to grow.It has become an important part of China’s financial system.The breach of the "11 Surper Day Debt " announced the break of the "rigid payment" model in China’s bond market.As the market economy enters a new stage,China’s bond default situation is becoming more and more complex,the defaulting entity,the number of defaults,and the amount of defaults are all on the rise.It may lead to the shrinkage of the bond market and the difficulty of financing for enterprises,which will have a negative impact on social development.Under this background,the author analyzes the influencing factors of bond default and builds a comprehensive and systematic early warning model of bond default.This has played a positive role in reducing the risk of bond defaults,improving the efficiency of the bond market,and promoting the healthy development of the market.This article combines theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.First analyze the theory of bond default warning model construction,and proposes macroeconomic indicators and microfinance indicators that affect corporate bond default.Then,32 listed companies with bond defaults from March 2014 to June 2019 were selected as the research object,and 13 different indicators were selected by statistical test and factor analysis.On this basis,through a binary logistic regression model,an early warning model of listed company bond defaults with an accuracy rate of 78.94%is constructed,and it is concluded that whether a company has a bond default,its comprehensive profitability,interest payment capacity,operating capacity and income Efficiency shows a negative correlation.Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward policy Suggestions on preventing the default risk of corporate bonds from three aspects:bond issuance level,bond investor level and bond supervision level.As a bond issuer,it is necessary to pay attention to its own comprehensive profitability,interest payment capacity,operating capacity and income efficiency and other financial factors to improve the level of operation and management;as a bond investor,it is necessary to effectively identify bond risks and continue to focus on macroeconomic changes and bond issuance Changes in the entity’s financial indicators;as a bond supervisor,it is necessary to improve the bond issuance system,adopt a bond default warning model,and set a corporate default warning red line.