Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Scientific And Technological Enterprises Based On The Method Of Survival Analysis

Under the background of knowledge economy and information age,science and technology and economy are increasingly interdependent and permeated with each other.Therefore,technology-based enterprises have more and more become the mainstay of China's economic and social development.However,at the same time,due to high investment and high risk,technology-based enterprises frequently suffer financial crisis,and the news of enterprise bankruptcy is common.But at the same time,the process of the company's financial crisis is slowly evolving.As long as you can grasp the signs,diagnose and prevent early,it is likely to avoid financial risks and lead the enterprise into the right track.This makes the science and technology enterprises urgently need to implement a set of efficient and accurate financial early warning mechanism,in order to dissolve the potential risks,and also makes the financial early warning research of science and technology enterprises has important practical significance.This thesis introduces the basic theory of survival analysis into the financial early warning research of science and technology enterprises.By adopting the method of combination of theory and empirical research,this thesis reviews the research status and theoretical basis in the field of financial early warning and survival analysis,and analyzes the characteristics and financial risk sources of science and technology enterprises.Then selecting the technology-based enterprises listed on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets in 2000-2018 as samples.Taking financial status,corporate governance,innovation ability and other indicators into comprehensive consideration,the index system for early warning of fina ncial crisis in science and technology enterprises is constructed.Then,screening the primary indicators through significance test,correlation test,proportional risk hypothesis test,etc.,the Cox proportional risk model of survival analysis is constructed to find out the law of survival probability changing with time and its key influencing factors.The conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)the cash flow debt ratio,the growth rate of operating profits,the number of board meetings,the proportion of outstanding shares and the total investment in R&D can reduce the financial risk and are the protective factors.The property right ratio and the proportion of state-owned shares will increase the probability of financial crisis,which are risk factors.(2)The survival function chart can calculate the timing and probability of possible financial crisis of the enterprises,from which it can be seen that the survival time of 70 and 150 months are the moments when the enterprises should focus on vigilance.(3)The comprehensive prediction accuracy of the model can reach 85.4%.Compared with Logistic model,the prediction results are more advantageous.Finally,based on the empirical results,this thesis puts forward suggestions and strategies for the prevention and control of the financial crisis early warning of technology-based enterprises.