Research On The Impact Of China's Leverage Regulation On The Systemic Risk Of Commercial Banks

Commercial banks are the main institutions for saving funds for people,an important channel for companies to replenish capital,and the core lifeline of the country's economic development.Therefore,systemic risks of commercial banks are the top priority for preventing systemic financial risks.After the outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis in2008,people began to realize the importance of commercial banks' leverage ratio supervision.Basel Bank's management committee learned a profound lesson from the financial crisis.In 2011,the Basel Capital Accord The leverage ratio was included in the supervision system and a lower limit of 3% was set.Subsequently,China's supervisory authorities also formulated the "Management Measures for Commercial Bank Leverage Ratio" and also set a 4% supervision threshold.Under this background,this article has launched a study on the impact of leverage ratio regulation on the systemic risk of commercial banks.This article selects the financial data of 16 listed commercial banks from 2008 to 2019,and conducts qualitative analysis,quantitative analysis and empirical research on the relationship between leverage ratio regulation and commercial bank systemic risk to explore how leverage ratio regulation has caused commercial bank systematic risk This kind of influence tries to provide some theoretical basis for the improvement ofthe supervision policy of commercial banks.First,this article defines the concepts of leverage ratio and systemic risk,and deduces the mechanism of the impact of leverage ratio regulation on the systemic risk of commercial banks from three levels:balancing the leverage cycle,enriching Tier 1 capital,and strengthening asset supervision.Secondly,a comparative analysis of the current situation of my country's commercial banks' leverage ratio shows that the leverage ratio of commercial banks has increased year by year,among which state-owned commercial banks have the highest leverage ratio,followed by national joint-stock commercial banks,and finally urban commercial banks.This paper also estimates the systemic risk level of commercial banks.The results show that: my country's state-owned commercial banks have the highest systemic risk,followed by joint-stock commercial banks,and finally urban commercial banks.It can be seen that due to its huge scale,state-owned commercial banks have the highest probability of systemic risk in the entire banking system.Thirdly,through the empirical model,this paper finds that strengthening the supervision of commercial banks' leverage ratio can reduce the systemic risks of banks,but the size of assets will affect the prevention and control effect of leverage ratio supervision on commercial banks' systematic risks.The larger the asset scale of a commercial bank,the stronger the effect of the leverage ratio supervision policy.In the empirical study of classified samples,it is found that the leverage ratio regulation has significant heterogeneity in the impact of commercial banks' systemic risk.Finally,this article gives suggestions that my country can reduce the probability of systemic financial risk by improving the leverage ratio supervision system,implementing differentiated supervision,and strengthening the supervision of systemically important banks.