Research On Real Estate Bubble Based On Resident Boundedrational Rent-buy Model

House prices and rents are two forms of expressing residential value,and in theory should maintain a certain proportional relationship.However,in recent years,due to the rising housing rent ratio in China's real estate market,the real estate bubble caused by the imbalance between housing prices and rent development has been a key topic of theoretical research.This paper analyzes the real estate market from the perspective of residents 'limited rational behavior by constructing the intertemporal utility model of housing rent-buying decision makers and combining the prospect theory in bounded rationality to examine the relationship between residents'expectations of the market and the housing price-to-rent ratio.Hire purchase selection behavior in Model research shows:First,the increase in the difference between the expected growth rate of house prices and interest rates will cause an increase in the number of home purchases.The result shows that in the case that residents think that investing in housing is more profitable than investing in other financial products,in the face of higher returns,the characteristics of "loss aversion,risk appetite" in residents limited rational behavior will further exacerbate this kind of house purchase behavior.Second,the residents' expectation of the real estate market and the change of house price to rent ratio show a positive correlation.In terms of empirical research,this article strictly follows the empirical analysis steps of panel data,judges the health status of China's real estate market by measuring the housing price-rent ratio of each city,and divides the sample cities into eastern,central,and western regions to study Differences in urban characteristics.The research in this paper draws the following three conclusions:First,from a short-term perspective,residents' optimistic expectations of the market will accelerate the increase in housing price-to-rent ratio to some extent.Secondly,from the perspective of long-term development,the deviation of housing prices caused by the repurchase of light rent by residents is an important factor leading to the real estate market bubble.Third,the rents of house prices in the three regions of the East,Central and West show obvious heterogeneity in terms of influencing factors and specific influencing factors.Among them,the speed of urbanization development will have a certain impact on the fluctuation of house price-to-rent ratio.