Research On The Impact Of Changes In Real Interest Rates On The Consumption Expenditures Of Urban Residents In My Country

Since the reform and opening up,China's social economy has achieved rapid development,and the people's living standards have been greatly improved.However,there have also been problems such as low final consumption rate and high savings rate of urban residents.Since the global financial crisis in 2008,interest rates in countries around the world have been falling,and deposit and loan interest rates in China have been falling with the deepening of interest rate liberalization reform.The actual interest rate refers to the interest rate after the nominal interest rate is removed from the impact of inflation rate.The fluctuation of the actual interest rate will affect the flow direction of social funds and have an important impact on China's economic development.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of changes on the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China under the current low real interest rate environment.This paper uses the data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2008 to 2017 to establish a static panel model,and uses the fixed effect estimation method to investigate the impact of real interest rate changes on China's urban residents' consumption expenditure.The results show that the increase of China's real interest rate has a positive impact on the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China,and the increase in real interest rates will promote China's urban residents' consumption expenditure.This paper is divided into five parts.The first part is the introduction,expounds the research background and significance of this paper,and sorts out the research results of real interest rate and household consumption expenditure at home and abroad.The second part is the influence mechanism.Firstly,the two concepts of real interest rate and urban residents' consumption expenditure are defined.Secondly,the channels of real interest rate changes affecting urban residents' consumption expenditure are analyzed.The mechanism of the impact of real interest rate changes on urban residents' consumption expenditure is theoretically revealed and analyzed;the third part is the analysis of the status quo.By analyzing the current situation of China's urban residents' consumption expenditure,and comparing with the rural residents and other countries,it is found that the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents in China is low and growing.The fourth part is empirical analysis.Through data selection and model setting,the various measurement methods are compared and then the fixed effect model is selected.The benchmark variables and control variables are estimated respectively to verify the actual interest rate changes for China's urban residents' consumption expenditure.The results shows that the change of real interest rate has a positive impact on the consumption of urban residents in China,and tests the robustness of the regression results;the fifth part is the conclusions and policy recommendations,draws conclusions based on empirical analysis,and starts from the reality of our country.The corresponding policy recommendations were put forward: first,continue to promote the reform of interest rate marketization,give full play to the regulation and control of interest rate leverage;second,reduce the inflation rate and raise the level of actual interest rate;third,through various ways,accelerate the increase of the per capita disposable income level of urban residents in our country;Fourth,adhere to regional coordinated development and narrow the differences in economic development between regions.