| Debt financing is one of the factors affecting the core competitiveness of real estate development enterprises.In recent years,China's listed real estate companies have borrowed heavily to meet their investment and operation needs,and the debt pressure has been continuously increasing.In this context,according to the characteristics of debt financing of listed real estate enterprises,the study of their interest-paying debt and sustainable growth can provide a reference for the company to make financing decisions,and also provide a basis for the formulation of industrial policies.At the same time,the debt analysis method,which attaches importance to cash flow,provides a new way to evaluate and compare the real value of real estate development enterprises which are increasingly homogeneous.Therefore,the thesis has important practical and theoretical significance.Based on the existing research,the paper put forward under the premise of considering the investors required rate of return,increase consider Debt financing Cost(DCC)and residual income model framework of sustainable growth: consideration based on the current total market value and book value of the difference,the Cost of Debt financing(DCC)(Debt Capital Cost,(DCC)and reasonable gradient returns,to solve the long-term sustainable growth rate;It also compares and analyzes whether the realizable growth matches the sustainable growth revealed by the model.This paper studies whether the mark-net balance of listed real estate enterprises is reasonable,and whether there is overvaluation and undervaluation of market value.On the financial statements to adjust operation,this paper first through the exact data of the cash flow statement,through the new estimation method,various typical listed enterprise,try to calculate the cost of debt financing(DCC)payments part,using the balance sheet liabilities unscrambles the DCC molecules-interest-bearing debt,integrated computation DCC as a shareholder to supplement the required rate of return,this method is different from traditional CAPM model calculation method of the discount rate.Secondly,the residual earnings discount model including DCC,shareholder return and sustainable growth rate was constructed to calculate the sustainable growth level of sample enterprises based on the current stock price and reasonable gradient shareholder return,andthe sensitivity of various variables in the residual earnings discount model was analyzed.Finally,the thesis calculates the degree of deviation between the reasonable enterprise value of sample companies and the current market value based on the discounted residual income model,gives investment Suggestions,and evaluates the investment value of typical listed real estate enterprises.Within the above framework,on the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper conducts valuation comparison by combining the assets and liabilities,revenue and profit,cash flow and other multi-party data of ten typical real estate enterprises in 2018-2019.The research conclusions of this paper mainly include :(1)the financial expenses and interest expenses in the profit statement of listed real estate enterprises cannot reflect the real debt financing cost(DCC)of the enterprises,so it is necessary to introduce the cash flow data to link the interest-bearing debt level to estimate the real financing cost.(2)the debt financing cost(DCC)of typical listed real estate enterprises is relatively independent of the debt scale.(3)there is a large deviation between the market value of some listed companies and their intrinsic value,which shows that the sustainable growth rate of some listed real estate enterprises is significantly higher or lower than the reasonable level under the reasonable rate of return.(4)the backward application of the residual income model introduced by DCC can give a better investment forecast on the basis of fully considering the debt cost,which has great practical value. |
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