Grey Target Negotiation Consensus Model And Its Application

Grey system theory was founded by Professor Julong Deng in the 1980 s.After more than 40 years of development,it has formed a relatively complete theoretical system.Gray target decision-making,as an important part of the grey system theory system,has received extensive attention since its inception.After the unremitting efforts of many scholars,it has been further developed and improved,and it has solved a large number of practical problems in many fields such as society,management,and military.With the development of society,the decision environment,decision information and decision makers' psychology become more complex.The existing research on grey target group decision-making is not a true group decision,and it is difficult to solve the dynamic group decision-making problem with a hierarchical structure and information interaction in the decision group.Therefore,there is still a lot of research space for the gray target decision-making.In the traditional gray target decision-making,experts or decision-makers only evaluate and score the scheme,and do not conduct sufficient information exchange and opinion exchange to reach a consensus decision result.However,in real life,there is a large number of group consensus issues with dynamic interaction of group opinions,and there is a hierarchical relationship between decision makers,that is,one or more leaders coordinate other decision makers to make decisions.For example,in the selection of risk treatment solutions for the development of complex equipment,it is not simply a matter of ordering alternatives,but a coordinator who collaborates with multiple R&D stakeholders to continuously conduct opinion interactions and interest games from their own interests.Finally,all decision makers reached a relatively satisfactory consensus risk treatment plan.This paper builds a grey target negotiation consensus model based on the idea of super-conflict analysis and the minimum cost consensus method,and systematically extends the grey target decision-making to the field of group decision consensus,in order to enrich the application scenarios of grey target decision theory.The research results of this article are as follows:(1)Grey target negotiation consensus model.Aiming at the grey target group decision-making problem where the decision maker has a hierarchical structure(one super decision maker coordinates multiple general decision makers)and the dynamic interaction of decision information,this paper introduces concepts such as preference vectors,perceptual mapping games,and conflict situation benefits in hyper conflict analysis.In the grey target decision-making,the grey situation benefit,the grey situation distance,and the grey situation bulls-eye matrix satisfying several types of stability are defined.From the perspective of conflict stability,the grey target negotiation consensus model is constructed using the minimum cost consensus method.In order to simplify the calculation and obtain stable results,the algorithm of this model is designed.Based on this model,the influence of the independence and non-independence of events and targets in grey target decision is discussed.Finally,a numerical example is used to verify the feasibility of the model.(2)Grey target negotiation consensus model based on utility preference.Further considering the impact of decision makers' utility preferences on decision outcomes due to different knowledge levels,backgrounds,and statuses,this paper uses the grey probability function to characterize the changes in decision makers' utility preferences.According to the specific decision-making situation,several types of linear gray possibility functions and several types of nonlinear gray possibility functions are constructed,which can describe the psychological changes of decision makers in detail.Then,the decision-maker's utility constraint and subsidy upper limit are introduced as constraints to the first part of the grey target negotiation consensus model to maximize the group utility to build a grey target negotiation consensus model based on utility preferences.Finally,the characteristics and economic significance of several types of gray target negotiation consensus models with typical utility-constrained combinations are analyzed and verified with an example.(3)Incentive design of industrial GPTs R&D based on grey target negotiation consensus model.Aiming at the government-led industrial GPTs R&D incentive problem,from the perspective of government subsidies,the corresponding incentive mechanism is designed based on the grey target negotiation consensus model to promote the level of effort of R&D stakeholders to match their own capabilities,thereby forming a super-conflict equilibrium between Nash equilibrium and Shapley value equilibrium,which can guarantee the long-term effective cooperation between the stakeholders to achieve incentives.The following conclusions and recommendations are obtained through case analysis:1)If government power is too concentrated,it may lead to low enthusiasm for R&D subjects and lack of technical innovation vitality.The government can allow the market to allocate technical resources,adhere to market-oriented industrial GPTs R&D,and promote the practical application and commercialization of technology.2)Government R & D subsidies should be appropriate,not as much as possible.For the R&D of GPTs with good foundation,the government should set the subsidy level reasonably,encourage private investment to participate,and strengthen the vitality of the R&D system.3)The government should provide a good environment and supporting infrastructure for GPTs R&D.Only in this way can the super-conflict equilibrium R&D state be better achieved in the R&D system,and encourage all stakeholders to invest appropriate efforts that match their capabilities to achieve a long-term stability cooperation.