Research On Influence Factors And Forecast Of International Gold Price

Gold is a special commodity with many properties such as commodity,currency and investment.And its price fluctuation is also different from ordinary commodities.Gold price is affected by many factors,so it has become the focus of many scholars at home and abroad.In different periods,gold also shows different properties.Gold has gradually become an important investment asset.People pay more and more attention to gold.And it is very important to predict the future trend of gold price.The complexity of the commodity contributes to a number of factors affecting gold prices.Firstly,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the factors influencing the international gold price.There are many factors forming the price of gold,and the influencing factors are not only one that can explain it.The relationship between supply and demand is the basis for studying the price of a commodity.On top of that,we should also consider the influence of financial market and non-market factors on the price of gold.When studying the factors influencing the international gold price,this paper finds that there is a lack of in-depth research on non-market factors.Therefore,the research on influencing factors in this paper is divided into two aspects.First,from the perspective of financial markets,including the dollar exchange rate,inflation,federal funds rate,stock capital market and other factors.Create a VAR model of these factors and the gold price to study the influence of the fluctuations of various variables on the gold price.On the other hand,non-market factors are used for in-depth research.Through the dummy variable,the sudden attack,war,financial crisis and other events are expressed and quantified.The The ARIMA model of staged intervention is also proposed.Explore the impact of events on gold prices at different times.In addition,VAR model is used to explore the relationship between investorpsychology and gold price.In the prediction of international gold price,in view of the problems existing in the existing models,the variational mode is used to decompose the international gold price sequence based on the prediction idea of multi-scale combination model.Solve the phenomenon of incomplete decomposition of current methods.According to the characteristics of each sequence and grey relational degree,the decomposed items are reconstructed.The long-term and short-term memory,support vector machine and ARIMA models were used to predict the reconstruction terms.LSTM can effectively solve the problems existing in the current neural network.The predicted results are integrated.By comparison,the prediction accuracy of the model in this paper is better than that of single models such as ARIMA,support vector machine and long and short memory,and higher than that of some multi-scale prediction models.These conclusions have important reference value for the field of prediction.