Time-varying Analysis Of Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Stability And Economic Fluctuations

At the present stage,the economy “from real to virtual” constitutes an important feature of China's macroeconomic evolution.In this context,financial stability and economic volatility and their linkage effect have been a hot issue in academic circles,it is also a balance between “risk prevention” and “stable growth”,further focus on the supply side of the structural reform and the introduction of a series of economic policies important reference.However,the policy uncertainty caused by the frequent introduction of economic policies will affect the expectation of micro subjects,which may lead to the deviation of macro policy control.To this end,the system reveals the dynamic adjustment process between financial stability and economic volatility and the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on the two,not only does it help to examine the characteristics of the relationships between the three,but it also helps to reduce the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty,We will control financial risks,smooth out economic fluctuations,promote synergy between the real economy and the virtual economy,and achieve steady and sound economic development.Article first at home and abroad on economic policy uncertainty,financial stability and economic fluctuation of related concept,classification,theory,and many other aspects of the system research context and the latest progress of literature review,in between and among the several aspects such as concrete,into for subsequent studies provide some useful research idea and basic theory support.Secondly,at the present stage,given that financial stability and economic volatility and their interaction constitute an important feature of macroeconomic evolution in the context of China's pursuit of high-quality economic development,the policy uncertainty caused by a series of economic policy regulation has an important impact on the coordination and co-evolution of the two.Based on this,this paper,from the perspective of macroeconomic evolution,constructs an analytical framework for economic policy uncertainty,financial stability and economic volatility,systematically combs and analyzes the linkage effects among the three,and applies tvp-sv-var model to carry out empirical research under full samples and asymmetric analysis under multiple scenarios.Through relevant theoretical elaboration and empirical tests,the analysis of the whole sample shows that: on the one hand,before 2012,economic policy uncertainty will exacerbate economic fluctuations in the medium and long term,and changes in financial stability will also promote economic fluctuations;After 2012,economic policy uncertainty intensified economic volatility in the short and medium term,and financial stability and economic volatility showed interactive interaction characteristics.The analysis of different scenarios shows that: on the one hand,before 2015,the increase or decrease of economic policy uncertainty will reduce financial stability in a short term;After 2015,increased economic policy uncertainty will reduce financial stability in the medium and long term,while the easing of economic policy uncertainty is conducive to maintaining financial stability.On the other hand,when financial stability decreases,it will increase economic volatility in the short and medium term.And when financial stability increases,it helps calm economic volatility in the short and medium term.Comprehensive the above research results,this article is based on the sample of empirical research and analysis of multiple scenarios of asymmetry system to discuss economic policy uncertainty,financial stability and the linkage characteristics of economic fluctuation,and then proposed the present stage in our country in reducing economic policy uncertainty,maintaining financial stability,and reduces the economic fluctuations of the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions,to achieve the high quality of economic development provides the beneficial enlightenment.