Research On Macro-prudential Policy Effect And Policy Collocation Of Cross-border Capital

In the past decades,countries have promoted the opening of capital accounts in order to introduce foreign capital to promote economic growth.However,the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 made governments realize that the procyclical effects of the financial cycle and the positive feedback mechanism of capital will cause systemic risks and drive up asset price bubbles.Therefore,it is necessary to implement the necessary capital controls and macro-prudential supervision for cross-border capital to stabilize the financial cycle.To effectively implement the macro-prudential policy of cross-border capital,we first need to clarify the transmission mechanism and effects of cross-border capital on the domestic economy.Therefore,the first issue discussed in this article is: cross-border capital flows affect the channels of the domestic market.After sorting out the various transmission channels for cross-border capital,supervision can be imposed at key links to smooth out fluctuations.The second question discussed in this article is: the way in which cross-border capital macro-prudential policies come into play,their effectiveness analysis,and where their differences from capital controls lie.Cross-border capital macro-prudential policies stabilize the financial environment,but monetary policy is also needed to ease economic fluctuations.In the context of the current construction of a two-pillar policy framework in China,how can cross-border capital macro-prudential policies be combined with monetary and exchange rate policies to better alleviate economic fluctuations and achieve the dual goal of financial stability? This is also the key research issue of this article.Based on the answers to the above questions,this paper constructs the DSGE model after sorting out cross-border capital transmission channels,and supplements the macro-prudential policy in the framework.The empirical results show that:(1)Cross-border capital can generate procyclical effects through three transmission channels of credit channels,currency channels and exchange rate channels,causing systemic risks.(2)Counter-cyclical cross-border capital macro-prudential policies have the effect of stabilizing the credit growth rate,but if only macro-prudential supervision is implemented,financial system instability will increase;if the government relaxes capital control measures in the process of opening up,it must pay more attention Macro-prudential regulatory framework.(3)The combination of macro-prudential policies of cross-border capital and quantitative monetary policies can stabilize output inflation,and the combination of price-types can stabilize credit markets;macro-prudential policies can promote the realization of the objectives of the exchange rate system,and a freely floating exchange rate system can promote economic development,But significantly reduces system stability.