Selection Of Macro-prudential Policy Rules For Effectively Regulating The Real Estate Market

Since the real estate commercialization policy was implemented in 1998,China's real estate industry has developed rapidly and has become a pillar industry driving China's economic growth.However,at the same time,housing prices across the country have repeatedly hit record highs,and residents' housing purchase costs have continued to increase.A large amount of capital has poured into the real estate market,which has a negative impact on the development of other industries,and has increased the risk of financial institutions,raising concerns about the Chinese economy.International experience has shown that the excessive real estate market may be caused by the collapse of the real estate market The end and brought serious harm to economic development and people's living standards.Therefore,how to formulate policies to effectively regulate the real estate market,guide the healthy development of the real estate market,and ensure the stable operation of the economy are issues that policy makers and academia should actively pay attention to and solve.At present,scholars at home and abroad have conducted a lot of research on the relationship between the real estate market and macroeconomic fluctuations.These studies have shown that the fluctuations in the real estate market may magnify the macroeconomic fluctuations,but the academia's macroeconomic control policy-monetary policy Whether to respond to the real estate market has been controversial.The US subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008,and monetary policy was severely criticized by all walks of life.It was found that it is difficult to achieve economic stability based on monetary policy alone.The introduction of macro-prudential policies is a better policy choice to deal with the economic imbalance caused by fluctuations in the real estate market.However,at present,the literature on macro-prudential policy regulation of the real estate market is relatively inadequate,and there are fewer studies on the selection of macro-prudential policy rules for effective regulation of the real estate market under different economic conditions.This article constructs a multi-sector DSGE model,and introduces credit-constrained non-patient families and entrepreneur to make the loan-to-value ratio dynamic,and uses the social welfare loss function to explore macro-prudential policy rules that regulate the real estate market under different exogenous shocks Choice problem.Studies have shown that in the face of different exogenous shocks in the economy,macro-prudential policies that effectively regulate the real estate market are not static,and policies should be adjusted to focus on variables and parameters according to specific conditions to effectively reduce welfare losses.LTV of non-patient families and entrepreneur under the impact of cost andmacro-prudential policies that deviate from the steady deviation of real estate prices can effectively regulate the real estate market and significantly reduce welfare losses;Under the credit shock,the macro-prudential policy of the non-patient family LTV focuses on the steady-state deviation of home real estate credit,and entrepreneur LTV focuses on the steady-state deviation of corporate real estate credit can effectively regulate the real estate market and significantly reduce welfare losses;The implementation of macro-prudential policies under the impact of monetary policy cannot suppress fluctuations in house prices,but the macro-prudential policy of the non-patient family LTV focuses on the steady-state deviation of home real estate credit,and entrepreneur LTV focuses on the steady-state deviation of corporate real estate credit can significantly reduce welfare losses.Improving welfare is not consistent with stabilizing the real estate market.Finally,this article draws several policy implications based on the research results and makes further prospects for future research.