Research On The International Pricing Power Of China’s Commodity Futures

With the advancement of economic globalization,the relationship between Chinese economy and international economy is getting closer and closer.China’s commodity trade plays an increasingly important role in international commodity trade.Studying the pricing mechanism of commodities and striving for international pricing power is one of the important contents for Chinese commodity market to adapt to the development of economic globalization.This paper uses GQMIS model and MRS-GQMIS model to study the international pricing power of three categories of commodity futures(agricultural,metals and energy)in China,and analyzes the influencing factors of pricing power.Firstly,this paper selects 10 commodities to construct GQMIS model to study the international pricing power of China’s commodity futures,including cotton,soybean,soybean meal,soybean oil,wheat,silver,gold,aluminum,copper and crude oil.For a given foreigner futures return quantile,when the Chinese futures return is at the middle quantile,the information share value for most commodities is the largest,approaching to 1.At this time,China’s commodity futures prices have a guiding role in foreign commodity futures prices,China’s commodities have international pricing power.Secondly,the MRS model was used to divide the futures market into two states of high volatility and low volatility to study the international pricing power of China’s commodity futures in different market volatility states.The average pricing power of most commodity varieties in high volatility market is higher than that in low volatility market.In particular,the average pricing power of soybean oil futures under high volatility market is lower than that under low volatility market.There is little difference in the average pricing power of gold futures under high and low volatility market.Finally,this paper selects a total of 8 variables including macroeconomic factors and industry variety factors to analyze the influencing factors of the international pricing power of China’s commodity futures.The results show that the volatility of futures market has a negative influence on the pricing power of soybean,while the change rate of net import and export scale of soybean and the returns of futures market have a positive influence on the pricing power of soybean.Copper futures returns has a positive influence on the pricing power of copper futures in China.For most commodity futures,when the volume of futures is larger,the futures market is more active,the more information is contained in the futures market,and the higher the pricing power of futures is.Through the above research,the following two suggestions are put forward for China to strive for the pricing power of commodity futures.First,we should improve the economic strength,stabilize the domestic economic development environment,and promote the internationalization of the RMB;Second,we should improve the construction of futures market,formulate effective trading system and promote rational trading of futures investors.