Research On Measurement And Spatial Spillover Network Structure Of China's Regional Real Estate Market Risk

At present,China is in a new stage of economic transformation,and is faced with multiple tests,such as institutional change,structural adjustment and transformation power,and has entered a window period of high risk and easy occurrence.As one of the important components of China's industrial economy,the real estate market has gradually shown serious regional differentiation characteristics while flourishing.Therefore,it is of great significance to prevent and resolve the risk of regional real estate market for economic transformation.Firstly,this paper introduces the connotation,formation,spillover and other related theories of regional real estate market risk;secondly,it constructs the index system of regional real estate market risk level measurement from four aspects of real estate price,inventory,finance and environmental risk,and measures the regional real estate market risk level of 31 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in 2005-2018 based on hierarchical analysis-entropy value combination weighting model.The results showed that:(1)From the point of view of time,the regional real estate risk in China from2005 to 2018 shows the trend of “rising first and then decreasing”as a whole.From the regional comparison,the risk level distribution of the real estate market in each region is uneven,and the risk evolution trend among the regions is also different;(2)In terms of the overall network structure,the risk spatial spillover network of China's regional real estate market is a “scale-free network”,which presents complex and pluralistic structural characteristics.From 2005 to 2018,the network correlationand network density showed a rising trend,the network correlation was strong,and the network grade showed a fluctuating downward trend.In terms of individual network structure,each province has different status and function in regional real estate market risk space spillover network.Among them,Beijing,Jiangsu and other provinces are in the central position of the network,play the role of bridge risk spillover;Hebei,Inner Mongolia and other provinces are in the edge of the network,but is the regional real estate market risk space spillover network contagion source;The analysis of local block model shows that the risk spatial spillover network of regional real estate market in China can be divided into 4 attribute plates,of which 13 provinces,such as Hebei and Inner Mongolia,belong to the “net overflow plate”,3 provinces,such as Chongqing and Guangdong,belong to the “broker plate”,6 provinces,such as Beijing and Tianjin,belong to the “net damage plate”,and 9 provinces,such as Hubei and Hunan,belong to the “two-way overflow plate”.Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from three aspects: strengthening the risk assessment and supervision of the regional real estate market,developing the coordinated management of the risk of the cross-regional real estate market and promoting the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation,thus promoting the healthy and steady development of China's real estate industry and regional economy.