Research On The Default Risk Of US Treasury Bonds

The U.S.Treasury bonds are facing a very high risk of default.It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to study the problem of default risk of U.S.Treasury bonds.In order to study the problem of US debt default,we should first analyze the reason why the default risk accumulates step by step.As a superpower,the United States has very high requirements in the fields of people's livelihood,military,economy and so on.The government's investment in these public needs has also changed from the traditional "within the budget" to "within the budget",which has subverted the traditional financial management concept.In addition,the increased financial consumption of the game between American political parties has resulted in the income can not meet the expenditure and debt accumulation.Secondly,in the process of practice,the open market operation has become a means for the United States to pass on the debt crisis,and the debt accumulation problem is more prominent under the double influence of the US dollar hegemony.From the perspective of the United States,the logic of debt risk accumulation has been formed,and default is irreversible.After the qualitative analysis of default risk,we should combine the quantitative analysis to grasp the size and change trend of default risk more accurately.The mlsim method is used for quantitative evaluation.According to the economic principle,the risk evaluation indexes are selected and the hierarchical structure is constructed.According to each index situation,the risk boundary is set.According to the corresponding risk boundary,the risk indexes at all levels are calculated and scored according to the same standard scoring system.Then the total score w of default risk of US debt is obtained by adding the corresponding formula,After that,Pearson test was carried out.Through the analysis of the quantitative results,we can accurately understand the size of the overall risk W of the US debt,and the relationship between the risk indicators and the change of the total risk W.Both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis have reached the same conclusion that there is a great possibility of default of US debt.Both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis have reached the same conclusion.To some extent,American debt has the risk of default.Therefore,the United States should take timely measures to balance fiscal revenue and expenditure,increase economic growth rate,optimize the use of national debt assets,so as to control the scale of debt,increase debt repayment ability,and effectively resolve the risk of debt default.