Research On The Factors Influencing Corporate Bond Default

The bond market is one of the important components of China's capital market.In 2019,the overall issuance scale of China's bond market continued to grow.A total of 45.2 trillion yuan of bonds were issued,an increase of 3.7% over the previous year,at the same time,the number of bond defaults reached Peak,more than half of which were corporate bonds.Based on the above background,this article will use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to explore the main factors affecting corporate bond defaults.First,Make a general theoretical analysis of the factors that may cause the default of corporate bonds.Secondly,select 11 indicators related to economic environment,industry nature,corporate debt characteristics,corporate main characteristics,corporate financial structure and situation,use the logit model to conduct empirical analysis.Third,a case study is made on the default event of the 17 th Huaxin Y1 corporate bond of Shanghai Huaxin Group,the first corporate bond with an initial rating of AAA,which includes the introduction of the bond and the issuer,a review of the default process,and factors that cannot be quantified from the Logit model.Those who may have an impact on bond defaults dig deeper into their default reasons.Finally,the research results of this article are summarized,and policy recommendations are proposed for regulators,companies and investors.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first,the development status of regional economy,the nature of the industry and the nature of the company are the factors influencing the default of corporate bonds;Second,Corporate bond default is also affected by the company's development strategy,internal governance and financial situation,and the company's financial indicators such as property right ratio and return on net assets can play a risk early warning role.Thirdly,the bond term and whether the bond is guaranteed or not have no significant influence on the bond default.Fourth,China's bond subject rating can not truly reflect the risk status of the company,the quality of corporate information disclosure needs to be strengthened.