Ordering Strategy Analysis Of Newsvendor Model Based On Different Behaviors Of Firm And Customers

Inventory management is a very important part of an enterprise's production and management activities,and the newsboy model is the most basic and widely used model in inventory management.In the classic newsboy model,the demand for goods is a random variable,the merchant is rational and has a neutral attitude to risk and loss,the customer is short-sighted and does not consider the existence of the clearance period,and the retailer will calculate an optimum Order quantity to avoid the losses caused when ordering less or more orders.In some inventory management issues,although risk is considered,the subjective behavior of the decision maker is often ignored,that is,the impact of the behavior of the merchant and the customer on the ordering strategy.Prospect theory believes that in the face of complex market environment,incomplete information and many uncertain factors,decision makers make judgments from a relative point of view.When making decisions,they not only pay attention to the final result of the decision,but also focus on the change of the result,that is,reference The impact of dependence.The reference dependence of research prospect theory and the subjective behavior of decision makers are the starting point of this paper.In the first part of this paper,we study the demand-affected prices,and about the aversion to loss based on price-related reference points.Merchants often show loss aversion when selling goods,because in the face of the same gains and losses,merchants are always more sensitive to their losses.Demand is also a common law in the commodity market due to price.Generally speaking,when the price increases,the demand for commodities will decrease.We obtained the optimal ordering strategy in this case,and combined the optimal order quantity at this time with the optimal order quantity after degeneration without loss aversion and the further optimal degradation with no preference,that is,the optimal order of the classical newsboy model The amount is compared,and the conclusion that loss aversion will make the retailer order less.As for the impact of reference dependence on the order quantity,it is more complicated,which is related to the degree of optimism of the merchant about the expected maximum return and the potential maximum loss..We also analyzed the impact of various parameters on the ordering strategy through sensitivity analysis,and obtained the conclusion that the higher the loss aversion coefficient,the less the order quantity.Compared with the classical newsboy model,these conclusions are more in line with the actual situation.The main innovation of this part is the first combination ofa loss-averse merchant based on a specific price-related reference point and the price-affected demand.The ordering strategy drawn at this time is also more instructive for real life.The second part of this article studies the order strategy of overconfident merchants when facing strategic customers.Retailers are not always rational,and often show overconfidence,that is,have an over-precision estimate of the demand for goods and will use this estimate as a benchmark to adjust their ordering strategy.Customers are often not short-sighted,but strategic,and will make purchases based on their own consumption surplus during normal sales and discounts.In previous research,overconfident businesses faced short-sighted customers,while strategic customers faced ordinary businesses.This article considers overconfident businesses for strategic customers for the first time.Optimal order strategy,and analyze how strategic customers and merchants' overconfidence affect order strategy.The overconfidence of the merchant explains that it will lead to a decrease in its revenue,and explains the pull-to-center effect of the order quantity;for strategic customers,their consumption surplus becomes larger under the high profit standard,and the opposite is true at the low profit standard At this time,the standard for measuring the level of profit has changed because customers are strategic.As for the impact of the customer's strategicity on the ordering strategy,it is the same as for ordinary merchants.The presence of strategic customers will also reduce the profits of overconfident merchants and reduce the order quantity.This article studies the optimal ordering strategy in different situations from the perspectives of merchants and customers,based on statistics,behavioral economics and operations research and other disciplines,using optimization methods,game analysis and numerical simulation.,Further improve the work of the predecessors,and provide a certain guiding significance for inventory management in real life.