Research On The Effect Of Counter Cyclical Macro Prudential Policy Tools

After the subprime crisis,people realized that there were defects in micro prudence.Micro prudence aims at a single financial institution,but a single financial institution cannot represent the whole financial system.The financial system is a huge system,which determines the economic operation of a country.The regulatory departments,financial institutions,enterprises and investors are closely related.It is obviously one-sided to consider some risks separately.Therefore,after the financial crisis in 2008,China put forward the macro Prudential policy,focusing on the whole financial institutions to control the occurrence of systemic financial risks.Among them,counter cyclical macro Prudential policy tools are committed to slowing down the periodicity of the financial system.Based on China's macro-financial data from 2008 to 2018,this paper constructs a financial cyclical index and uses VAR model to test the regulatory effect of China's counter cyclical macro Prudential policy tools.The first chapter mainly introduces the research background,purpose,significance and content.The second chapter introduces the current research on financial periodicity and macro Prudential policy,and finds that most of the current research on the effect of macro Prudential policy regulation focuses on the theoretical level,lacking quantitative research.The third chapter of this paper analyzes and measures the current situation of China's financial cycle,and constructs the financial cycle index based on China's macro financial data in 2008-2018.The fourth chapter combs the macro Prudential policy system of our country,introduces the counter cyclical macro Prudential policy tools of our country,and studies the transmission mechanism of the impact of the counter cyclical macro Prudential policy tools on the financial cycle.In chapter five,on the basis of the previous theoretical analysis,we construct the VAR model of financial cyclical index and three major counter cyclical macro Prudential policy instruments,and test the regulatory effect of the counter cyclical macro Prudential policy instruments in China.The sixth chapter,based on the empirical results,puts forward some suggestions on how to promote the macro Prudential policy better,hoping to provide meaningful exploration for improving the effect of macro Prudential policy and promoting the stable development of China's economy and finance.At last,this paper concludes that the provision coverage ratio has a better and more stable effect on the regulation of financial cycle,while the ratio of personal housing loan to value helps to reduce the systematic risk of the real estate industry,thus regulating the financial cycle,but because the effect is more intense,the short-term will increase the volatility of the financial system.Counter cyclical capital buffer is also more significant in the regulation of financial cycle,reflecting good policy effect.