Study The Effect Of The Joint Debt On Credit Card Overdue

In recent years,under the influence of external factors such as the continuous downturn of international and domestic economy,the continuous thundering of Internet platforms under strong supervision,and the significant increase of the risk of mutual debt,the credit card industry has experienced a decade of rapid development,and the growth rate of card issuing has begun to slow down,and the overdue scale has gradually increased.The performance data published by various major credit card issuers have mentioned the influence of mutual debt factors to varying degrees Credit card overdue is rising rapidly.It is more urgent to carry out the research on the influence of mutual debt on overdue credit card.In the past,the research on overdue default of credit card mainly focused on the factors such as cardholder's own characteristics and so on.Referring to the relevant research literature,this paper uses the relevant economic theory to analyze the internal cause and mechanism of the generation,development and transmission of the joint debt,and through the joint debt index constructed to empirically analyze its impact on the overdue credit card.First of all,it reviews the development of credit card industry in recent years,as well as the development of residential leverage ratio,debt repayment ratio,Internet loans and other joint debts.From the macro perspective,it is found that under the background of the rising residential leverage ratio,the total outstanding credit of credit card is also expanding,and the corresponding risk delay rate and loss rate of credit card are maintained at a high risk level.Secondly,through card issuers and loan machines Based on the theory of scale economic effect,the game theory between issuers,between issuers and lenders,between lenders and borrowers,and the theory of moral hazard and adverse selection caused by information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers,this paper makes a theoretical analysis,expounds the internal logic and transmission mechanism of the formation of mutual debt,and points out that the risk of mutual debt lies in credit By using the typical transmission path of card issuers,this paper reveals that there is a logical relationship between the risk of joint debt and the overdue default of credit card.Finally,based on the credit investigation report of the people's Bank of China,this paper constructs six evaluation indexes of external joint debt through four dimensions: basic information of joint debt,behavior information of joint debt,default information of joint debt,and potential demand information of joint debt.Combined with internal post loan management data,this paper uses multi classification logit model to make statistical analysis from an empirical perspective.The empirical results show that the total utilization rate of credit card quota,the number of abnormal repayment of other bank's credit card in the last 12 months,and the number of query institutions in the last 6 months show a strong positive correlation among the three indicators.The number of unsettled issuers,the number of abnormal repayment of loans in the last 12 months,and the two indicators show a positive correlation,and the constructed joint debt indicators are generally stable and significant.Through the comparison of the prediction results of the constructed model,it is found that the model has a good distinction for the prediction of serious overdue default and non default,nearly 80%.Finally,based on the whole process management of credit risk,the improvement of credit system,and the construction of credit failure punishment,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on how to reduce the overdue phenomenon of credit card caused by joint debt and prevent the systematic risk of credit card industry.