The Research On Investment Decisions In P2P Lending Based On Profit Assessment

As an emerging model,P2P online lending has attracted the attention and participation of many investors based on its high-yield investment profits and diversified investment options.However,problems such as information asymmetry and imperfect legal supervision have caused defaults on P2 P loans,which has caused huge losses to investors.For investors,it's important to make a reasonable assessment of each loan,and then make an effective investment decision,which can get more investment profits.In view of the investment goal for maximizing investors' profits,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to make a profit assessment of each loan,and establish a portfolio decision model based on the investors' own risk assessment to provide investors with investment decisions help.In this paper,profit assessment based on Lasso-LightGBM is firstly proposed,which takes investors' profit as the target variable,each loan's expenditure information as the explanatory variable,establishs a profit evaluation variables system based on Lasso method t,and then uses LightGBM to construct a profit assessment model.Then,on the basis of the profit assessment model,the predicted profit and variance of each loan are used to establish a invest portfolio decision model that considering investors' risk preference.This model can help investors determine best investment ratio and investment amount of each loan according to investors' own risk preference.Finally,based on the data from Lending club,an experimental research was conducted to verify the method proposed in this paper.The results show that profit assessment based on Lasso-LightGBM method can not only select the variables system matching the profit evaluation,but also improve the accuracy of the profit evaluation,which help investors obtain higher profit.And it proves the investors' profit matches the investors' risk preference in the portfolio decision-making model,which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the P2 P lending invest portfolio model that considers the investor 's risk preference.Simultaneously,this model can be used to help investors make optimal decisions.