Research On The Scale Of China's Grain Reserve Under The Background Of Supply Side Structural Reform

Food reserves are the last line of defense for food security and a strategic issue for stable social development,national economy and national independence.From 2004 to 2015,China's grain output increased for the 12 th consecutive year,which better solved the problem of feeding the over one billion people in China.However,against the background of the "twelfth consecutive grain increase" in China,the grain production,import volume and grain reserves have increased significantly.According to the central economic conference,starting from 2016,the supply-side structural reform will focus on reducing production capacity,inventory,leverage,cost and shortage,among which the grain supply-side structural reform will bear the brunt of inventory reduction.At present,the reform of agricultural supply-side structure has achieved remarkable results.For example,the grain inventory began to decline and the grain output changed from an upward trend to a stable or even a small decline.However,the reform of China's agricultural supply side structure is accelerated by international factors such as domestic agricultural support disputes between China and the United States and tariff quota disputes between China and the United States.From the perspective of food security,we can get rid of huge stocks,but we should also ensure reasonable stocks to deal with market risks.Therefore,under the background of supply-side structural reform,it is a challenging task for the Chinese government to reasonably determine the scale of grain reserves and strengthen the quality and quantity safety of grain reserves.Guided by the spirit of the report of the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China and other documents,this paper firstly defines the concepts of agricultural supply-side structural reform,grain(grain ration)and grain reserve,and summarizes the relevant theoretical basis of market failure theory,international trade theory and food security theory.Then,it analyzes the essence of agricultural supply-side structural reform and the role of international factors in promoting it,and demonstrates that agricultural supply-side structural reform inevitably requires the government to strengthen grain reserve management in the aspects of target adjustment,quantity optimization and management security of grain reserves.Then,on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of grain reserve scale,the grain reserve model under the background of supply-side structural reform is constructed,and the grain reserve scale is calculated.Finally,combined with China's national conditions and the background of agricultural supply-side structural reform,the paper puts forward policy Suggestions on strengthening China's grain reserve management.The innovation of this paper lies in the systematic division of the warning level of grain reserve scale.According to different warning levels,the corresponding model of grain reserve scale is established,and the interval value of grain reserve quantity of this warning level is calculated by combining with the model of grain reserve scale.Due to the annual fluctuationof grain production and the relative stability of grain consumption,it is an important means to construct a complete early-warning level mechanism of grain reserve scale,which is helpful for policy-making departments to make more scientific decisions on the handling of grain reserves,so as to achieve the balance between the total supply and demand of grain and realize the goal of grain reserve security.