Analysis Of Bond Default Factors And The Impact Of Default On The Market

In recent years,substantial bond defaults occur frequently.This paper tries to find out the influence factor of these bond defaults and study the impact of defaults on the market.This paper takes the bonds that have defaulted in China as the research object.Through empirical research,case analysis,event analysis and questionnaire,it studies the causes and market impact of bond default in China,and puts forward specific suggestions from bond issuance,bond investment and bond supervision.Firstly,from the internal and external causes of bond default,this paper summarizes the influencing factors of bond default.In terms of internal factors,this paper takes 28 first default bonds from January 2017 to August 2018 and 2094 first-class new bonds from January 2017 to June 2017 as samples,and uses Logistic model to carry out empirical research.It draws the following conclusions: enterprise nature,subject rating,net operating cash flow/total assets,bond maturity and asset-liability ratio have significant impact on the default of bonds.At the same time,we use the case analysis method to explain the special factors in the event of bond defaults.In terms of external factors,this paper analyses the impact of GDP growth and de-leveraging policy,and concludes that macroeconomic and regulatory policies are important factors affecting bond default.Secondly,through the form of event analysis,historical review and questionnaire,this paper studies the impact of default on the bond market,and finds that default will lead to widening credit spreads and reducing investors' risk preferences.Finally,this paper gives practical opinions and suggestions based on the causes of bond default and its impact on the market.For issuers,it is helpful for issuers to manage risks and avoid default;for investors,it is helpful for investors to make investment decisions and prevent risks;for regulators,it is helpful for regulators to formulate appropriate policies,improve their ability to avoid risks beforehand and manage risks afterwards,so as to avoid occurrence of systemic financial risks.