A Study On The Risk Of Structured Deposits In China's Commercial Banks

In 2018,the financial supervision department jointly issued ‘the guidance on regulating the asset management business of financial institutions to regulate the asset management business of financial institutions.Since then,the asset management products will be redefined.The original principal guaranteed financial products of commercial banks will no longer belong to the category of asset management products,and will gradually withdraw from the market in the future.The non principal guaranteed financial products will also implement the net worth management.Faced with this situation,how to undertake large-scale financing funds and meet the needs of investors' capital appreciation has become a problem that commercial banks must face.On the other hand,under the influence of the economic environment,the development of aeest side and liability side of commercial banks is slowing down.Under the background of interest rate liberalization,the pressure of narrowing bank interest margin and seest quality still exists.It is of great significance for banks to maintain the stability of the liability side.As a low-risk derivative financial product,structured deposit is especially favored by commercial banks and investors.Since ChinaEverbright Bank implemented the first foreign currency structured deposit in 2002,structured deposit has a history of 17 years.At present,compared with the international market,its development in China is not mature enough.The risks caused by product design,pricing,sales and market factors cannot be ignored.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the risk of structured deposits through theoretical and empirical research,and to put forward reasonable suggestions.First of all,it introduces the inevitability and development process of the birth of structured deposits.The third part of the paper redefinition analyzes the risk of structured deposits from the theoretical point of view,points out the existing problems of structured deposits in China,and determines the risk quantitative analysis and evaluation method.In the empirical stage,through GARCH(1,1)model to determine the parameters,and then use Monte Carlo simulation method to predict the future price trend of linked target,judge the probability of obtaining different yield at maturity,and then judge whether it is a "false structure",and optimize the design of structured deposit products,which will open up a new research direction for the study of the risk of structured deposit products,and make an optimization for investors after fully considering the risk and return We should make investment decisions,improve ability and risk managementlevel of commercial banks.Finally,this paper puts forward rationalization suggestions from three angles of investors,commercial banks and financial supervision departments,hoping to attract more investors to choose structural deposit products,reduce the investment in bad platforms,help to ensure the safety of investors' funds,help commercial banks improve their ability and risk management level,ensure the stable operation of banks,and help domestic economic funds Financial market develops healthily and harmoniously.