| The revival reform of the clause and rate making of commercial auto insurance started in China in 2015,this round of reform released a new version of the bonusmalus system which elaborated the levels,expanded the range of factors and included traffic violations coefficients compared to the previous edition.However,there is still a certain gap with the accurate depiction of the insured's historical claim experience.Therefore,there is still room for improvement in this version of the bonus-malus system.Under the background of the deepening of the marketization of auto insurance rates in China,the power of pricing has been gradually released to insurance companies,and pricing ability and the accuracy of actuarial pricing are of great significance to the operation of commercial auto insurance.As an important part of the pricing of commercial auto insurance,the bonus-malus system can explain about 40% of the differences in the risk costs of auto insurance,and the accuracy of its risk measurement affects the survival and development of insurers directly.The paper starts with the analysis and evaluation of the current bonus-malus system of commercial auto insurance in China,and deeply explores the problems it is facing currently.To deal with the major defect result from that the claim amount is not considered,the necessity and feasibility of including the claim size into the bonusmalus system are theoretically demonstrated,the bonus-malus system that considers both the number of claims and claim amount is built,and a solution for claim amount division based on decision tree algorithm and the calculation of relativities based on GLM and DHGLM is provided.The empirical study based on the actual data of an insurance company in China shows the importance of considering the number of claims and the amount of claims in bonus-malus system for accurate risk measurement and the advantages of the DHGLM.Subsequently,specific argumentation analysis is carried out for other aspects to be improved,and the direction of follow-up research is provided.Finally,the paper puts forward practical suggestions for the design and implementation of bonus-malus system.The empirical results show that the DHGLM provide better goodness-of-fits than the GLM;the claim amounts in last year is an important variable for risk differentiation,and a better bonus-malus system needs to take both the number of claims and the claim size;and the use of the bonus-malus system built in this paper can improve the shortcomings of China's current one to a certain extent. |
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