Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On Monetary Policy Transmission In China

Reflections on the causes of the international financial crisis have made shadow banking receive widespread attention.Although China's shadow banking is relatively late compared with countries such as Europe and the United Sta tes,the scale and structure of China's shadow banking are developing rapidly.The emergence of shadow banking has largely changed the investment and financing behavior of economic entities,which not only enabled lenders to have new financing channels,but also enabled investors to have more alternative investment directions.Shadow banking as a product of financial innovation,it has a profound impact on China's financial system,and its operating mechanism is independent of the traditional monetary policy,which will inevitably affect the transmission of monetary policy.Therefore,it is meaningful to study the influence of shadow banking on monetary policy transmission,whether for the formulation of government policies or the supplementary expansion of relevant theories.Firstly,this paper expounds the concept,main types,causes and characteristics of shadow banking in China.Secondly,this paper clarifies the relevant concepts of monetary policy transmission and makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of shadow banking on monetary policy transmission.Then we use the monthly data of relevant variables from January 2011 to May 2018 to make an empirical analysis using TVP-VAR model with time-varying coefficients.Empirical analysis shows that the expansion of shadow banking scale will weaken the growth of money supply in the short run,while in the long run it will promote the growth of money supply,which to some extent reduces the control of money supply by the People's Bank of China and interferes with the effect of money supply as a policy intermediary target.On the one hand,the expansion of shadow banks will hinder the growth of bank credit scale and weaken the role of bank credit transmission channels;on the other hand,it will also promote the increase of market interest rates,and then affect the interest rate transmission channels.Based on the conclusion of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the statistical scope of the official money supply,optimizing the transmission channels of monetary policy,and improving the relevant regulatory measures of shadow banks.