Research On The Risk Identification Ofcorporate Debt Default

Since 2014,a small amount of bond substantive default in the bond market has broken the myth of "rigid payment" in China's bond market.The phenomenon of bond default is increasingly frequent,and the measurement between risk and income has brought great challenges to bond investors,but also brought greater pressure to regulators.Corporate debt is a kind of bond which has a large number of defaults in the bond market and is representative.By analyzing the reasons of default and using machine learning to predict and verify the risk of default,it can not only provide more ideas and methods for the study of bond default identification,but also give the bond parties a certain point of appreciation Meaning.This paper firstly introduces the concept,current situation and risk factors of default.Based on the case analysis —— China Minsheng Investment Group,a large comprehensive company with the first default in 2019,the reasons for the default risk are analyzed from three aspects: macro environment,industry level and internal company.Secondly,according to the case analysis and domestic and foreign scholars,the factors affecting internal and external bond default are summarized and combed to obtain 29 characteristic values,and the principal component analysis of these 29 sample indicators is carried out to screen out the importance ranking.indicators for the first 10.The BP neural network is constructed to verify the default risk,to predict the default of 50 corporate bonds and 50 normally maturing corporate bonds in 2014-2019,and to take 15 corporate bonds such as China Minsheng Investment as an example to prove that the BP neural network has a good prediction effect on corporate debt default.Finally,the research on the risk identification of corporate debt default is summarized,and the relevant suggestions are put forward for issuers,investors and regulators.Through the above analysis and research,it is found that the causes of corporate debt default can be divided into internal and external causes.The external causes such as macroeconomic downturn,contraction of external financing environment and the influence of industry development are the inducement of bond default,and the internal factors such as poor management,business operation risk,financial crisis and strategic layout problems are the decisive factors for the default of corporate debt.But in the internal factor,the bottom line is because the enterprise itself appears the financial crisis,the capital flow breaks.But the problem of internal corporate governance can not be underestimated,the poor management of enterprises in serious cases will lead to financial crisis and reputation damage.Under the joint action of many internal and external factors,it leads to bond default.