| Since the reform of the tax-sharing system,the tax revenue of local governments has decreased significantly,but the obligations and scale of expenditure have not changed accordingly.In order to protect the city's infrastructure,almost all local governments have set up local financing platforms for financing.Local financing platforms are generally called city investment companies,and the debts issued are called city investment bonds.However,although the establishment of local financing platforms has promoted the rapid development of local infrastructure,it has also led to the problem of rapid accumulation of local government credit risk,especially when housing prices fluctuate.A lot of researches have emerged around this issue,and this article reviews them,and then finds that the existing research does not distinguish the development model of the government.In fact,a large amount of data show that there are currently two development models(paths)for the government: the first is that local governments “get out of their means”,that is,with the goal of “attracting investment”,vigorously raise debt for infrastructure construction and firmly believe this can attract a large influx of investment,and the future tax and land transfer payments brought by the influx of investment can repay the current huge debt.This model can be referred to as the "building nests to attract the phoenix" model;the second is that local governments "make both ends meet",based on the development of the local economy and the corresponding tax guarantees,to borrow,and then to build various infrastructures.In other words,the government's debt scale and corresponding infrastructure development plan do not aim to "attract investment",but to ensure the overall stable development of the city.Moreover,local governments firmly believe that with the steady development of cities,various investments will naturally flow in.This model can be called the " golden phoenixes comes autonomously " model.Existing research does not distinguish between these two development models,so it does not distinguish between the credit risks faced by two models.This article builds a theoretical model,and theoretically analyzes the financing costs,return on investment,and resulting refinancing costs of the two development models,and ultimately the credit risk that local governments bring.Based on the results of theoretical analysis,this paper proposes the following theoretical hypothesis: when housing prices show large fluctuations,compared with the " golden phoenixes comes autonomously " model,the city investment bonds issued by the local government that adopts the "building nest and attracting phoenix" model will face greater credit risk.Subsequently,this paper carried out empirical research.The empirical research is conducted in two stages.In the first stage,the data of 62 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2018 were selected for Granger causality test,and the cities of "building nests and attracting phoenixes" and "golden phoenixes comes autonomously" were effectively screened out.In the second stage,the 32 prefecture-level cities screened were tested for intermediary effects methods,to study how real estate price fluctuations have a direct and indirect impact on the credit risk of city investment bonds.The results of the empirical study show that:(1)For both types of cities,rising housing prices can reduce the credit spread of city investment bonds and alleviate the credit risk of city investment bonds;(2)For both types of cities,housing prices have a significant positive effect on land transfer income.The increase in land transfer income can also reduce the credit spread of city investment bonds,so house prices can affect the credit spread through land transfer income;(3)Compared with the "golden phoenixes comes autonomously " model,the credit spreads of city investment bonds in the “building nests and attracting phoenixes” cities have greater flexibility for housing prices and land sales income.When housing prices and land transfer income fall,it means that the " building nests and attracting phoenix " model has greater risk exposure;(4)When there is a large downward fluctuation in housing prices,cities like "building nests to attract phoenixes" will face greater credit risk and have a deep negative impact on the long-term development of a city.On this basis,this article puts forward the following policy recommendations: Firstly,local governments should gradually change the mode of relying on land sales income and housing sales income to repay debts,they should encourage the development of regional basic economy,and steadily increase the proportion of tax revenue in total fiscal revenue.Secondly,despite the difficulties such as tight taxation and slow infrastructure development,cities with the " golden phoenixes comes autonomously " mode should still adhere to the " golden phoenixes comes autonomously " mode,because in the short term,it is related to the government 's credit risk,and in the long term,it is related to the health of local social and economic development.Thirdly,the "building nests and attracting phoenix" model should adopt a healthy and safe way to achieve the transition to the "golden phoenix comes autonomously " model.The possible theoretical contributions(innovations)of this paper are as follows:(1)Centering on the problem of local government credit risk,the development model of local government is theoretically distinguished from the "golden phoenix comes autonomously" model and the " building nests and attracting phoenix " model.Identify the cities corresponding to these two types of models through data.(2)The article constructs a theoretical model that distinguishes the financing costs,investment returns,dynamic refinancing costs,the degree of risk exposure and risk accumulation of the two types of models,correspondingly put forward theoretical assumptions;(3)Through the intermediary effect model,an empirical study on the credit risk of local governments under two different development models is carried out. |
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