Research On Enterprises’ Credit Risk Measurement And Contagion Based On Real Estate Industry Chain

Credit risk,as the risk that the debtor may default,has always been the primary problem bothering financial institutions and business entities.With the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990 s and the continuous spread of the subprime crisis in the United States to other areas in August 2007,the contagion effect of credit risk has attracted extensive attention from the financial industry and academia.At the real economy level,companies connect with each others through bilateral credit transactions,business transactions,equity,and guarantees.These related credit risk has become a hot and difficult issue in the modern national risk management.China’s real estate industry chain is relatively long,where the related industries of its upstream and downstream are numerous,and the industry’s driving effect is obvious.On the whole,the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries show the interdependence characteristics of "all glory,all damage ".Based on the real estate enterprises in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the core,this paper compared them with the real estate enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze river delta city clusters,and found that the asset-liability ratio of real estate enterprises in the former has risen from 2016 to 2018,which is higher than the other two city clusters.Then,the revised KMV model was used to calculate the credit risk of enterprises and was found that the credit risk of real estate enterprises in the Greater Bay Area was highest among the three city clusters in the past two years.On the basis of the study,by looking for real estate industry chain upstream and downstream enterprises in the region,this paper studied the credit risk of the enterprise on the industry chain,and build large bay area of the connection between the listed companies in the real estate industry chain network through the creditor-debtor relationship and mutual cooperation between enterprises and enterprise development or the relationship of the same products.In order to do a further research on the risk of transmission mechanism between the enterprises,this article is based on different nodes importance index,select the region on the real estate industry chain conforms to the conditions set by the enterprise as the starting point of infection,disease(SIR)model of the associated your community network transmission target risk simulation analysis,to find the largest transmit strategy and its corresponding contagion effects.Finally,the target impact mode was classified to study and compare the change of contagion effect under different conditions.The following conclusions were drawn :(1)The credit risks of real estate enterprises in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are relatively high,and the credit risks of large brand real estate enterprises are relatively low due to factors such as largescale,national layout and fast turnover.(2)The connection network of real estate industry chain in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has the characteristics of small-world effect and scale-free,and the node with a large degree center coefficient will be infected,which will cause the most extensive risk contagion effect,among which the infection probability and recovery probability are the key factors affecting the risk contagion effect;(3)In addition,by comparing the impact of target shock and random shock on the infection scale,it is found that the network is more vulnerable to selective shock;Based on the actual situation of cash flow strain of enterprises affected by the epidemic in 2020,it is found that the initial infection point of enterprises with different solvency and credit risk levels will cause different contagion effects.Finally,based on the analysis of the research methods,empirical studies and simulation experiments above,relevant conclusions and suggestions on the prevention and control of the associated credit risk contagion among their affiliated enterprises are proposed from the three dimensions of government,financial institutions and enterprises.