A Study On China's Industrial Upgrading Effect On The Home Country Of OFDI Along The "Belt And Road"

With the continuous advancement and deepening of the “One Belt,One Road”initiative,the scale of China's OFDI has maintained a steady and orderly development.For more than 40 years of reform and opening up,while the Chinese economy continues to develop rapidly,the structural contradiction of industrial development caused by the unreasonable allocation of production factors has made China's economy in an "inflection point" of an urgent transformation.At present,China is facing the dual situation of the domestic industrial structure urgently needs to be transformed and upgraded,and the scale of direct investment to countries along the line.This paper examines China's upgrading effect on the industrial structure of the home country of OFDI along the “Belt and Road” and promotes the optimization and upgrading of the domestic industrial structure.Deepening trade cooperation,enhancing cooperation between China and countries along the industrial chain,and promoting the construction of a community of human destiny have important scientific and practical significance.In order to understand the industrial structure effect of OFDI,firstly,the research on the industrial structure evolution theory,on the OFDI industrial structure effect,and on the OFDI in the countries along the line are reviewed.Secondly,it analyzes the different characteristics of OFDI driven by different motives.On the basis of investment motives,combined with the actual situation of “One Belt,One Road”,this paper explores the transmission path of the four effects of OFDI to promote industrial upgrading in the home country,these effects are the theoretical basis for the empirical conclusions.Then,the status quo of China's OFDI along the “Belt and Road” and the status quo of China's industrial structure are examined.In the empirical part,firstly,from the overall level,the industrial structure upgrading effect of OFDI is examined,and VAR model is used to investigate the impact of OFDI on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of the home country;then from the sub-category level,OFDI and industrial structure adjustment index are analyzed.The relationship between the two is established,and the gray correlation degree model is established.On this basis,the industrial upgrading effect of OFDI in different regions is studied.The empirical results at the overall level show that in the short-term,China's direct investment in countries along the route will promote the upgrading of its industrial structure;in the long run,there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China's direct investment in the countries along the line and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure,which is conducive to promoting the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure.In the VECM model,OFDI has a restraining effect on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure in the short term.The reason for the speculation may be the phenomenon of industrial hollowing out,which temporarily hinders the upgrading of relevant domestic industrial structure.The results of gray correlation analysis at the sub-category level shows that the relationship between OFDI and the industrial upgrading of the home country from high to low is: Central and Eastern Europe,South Asia,Mongolia,Russia,West Asia,North Africa and Southeast Asia.Based on the above conclusions,the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed in response to how to effectively promote the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative and how to adopt investment strategies according to local conditions and finally achieve optimal industrial structure optimization and upgrading.