Dynamic Adjustment Of Target Capital Structure Of Listed Companies In China And Its Influencing Factors

Since the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference,the “three to one,one reduction and one supplement” policy has been the central content of the supply-side reform,and it has continued to attract widespread attention from all walks of life.Among them,“deleverage” is to improve the debt structure of various sectors of society during the process of economic transformation and upgrading,rationally increase or decrease of equity capital,effectively respond to financial risks,promote the improvement of social production efficiency,and adjust the degree of leverage in a controlled manner.Leverage and capital structure can be seen as two aspects of things.Whether it is de-leveraging,stable leverage or leverage,its essence is the process of dynamic adjustment of capital structure.From this point of view,a reasonable capital structure is essential for the optimal allocation of economic and social resources.The problem of dynamic adjustment of capital structure is not only the focus of the company,but also the hotspots explored by scholars.With regard to the study of capital structure theory,since Modigliani and Miller proposed the famous MM theorem,after more than 60 years of research by domestic and foreign scholars,the theory of capital structure from different perspectives has been formed..These theories gradually relax the hypothesis of the MM theorem,and clarify from different angles how the enterprise adjusts the ratio of debt and equity to achieve the optimal capital structure,reduce the cost of the enterprise,and maximize the value of the enterprise.With the development of econometrics and the focus on capital structure,scholars have gradually shifted from static to dynamic,and proposed the theory of dynamic capital structure.According to the theory of dynamic capital structure,a company that maximizes its value will adjust to the optimal capital structure according to changes in the internal and external economic environment.However,due to the adjustment costs of different sizes in the process of adjusting to the target capital structure,when the actual capital structure of the company deviates from its target capital structure,will the company adjust according to the corresponding situation? How should the company adjust? What is the strength? In fact,a company that aims to maximize its value does not let its capital structure deviate from its target level for a long time.In view of this,this paper uses the data of 3141 Chinese listed companies in 2011-2018,uses the capital structure dynamic model to estimate the target asset-liability ratio,and divides the company into leverage deficiency and excessive leverage based on the estimated results,and then according to different external financing situations of the enterprise.,continue to subdivide into four categories.In other words,from the perspective of corporate financing choices,this paper measures the strength of the adjustment of listed companies to their target capital structure based on the basic SSM model.This thesis mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)The intensity of the change from the asset-liability ratio to the target asset-liability ratio depends on the current level of the asset-liability ratio and the type of securities selected for financing in the next period,that is,through the issuance of bonds and resale.Equity,stock issuance,debt repayment,etc.,to increase or decrease debt,and to adjust the capital structure.(2)Factors affecting the target capital structure:(1)In terms of macro characteristics,the macroeconomic cycle has a significant negative correlation with the asset-liability ratio.The tightness of credit rationing has a significant positive correlation with the company's asset-liability ratio.(2)In terms of company characteristics,the industry median is significantly positively correlated with the company's asset-liability ratio,while Altman Z value,firm growth,profitability,liquidity,asset tangibility and company size are significantly negatively correlated with asset-liability ratio.(3)Whether it is insufficient leverage or excessive leverage,equity is the preferred method for most companies to raise or sell back.The financing options of most C1 and C4 companies do not meet the expectations of the target capital structure adjustment;while the financing options of most C2 and C3 companies are in line with the expectations of the target capital structure adjustment behavior.Finally,based on the results of this study,relevant policy recommendations are put forward:(1)speed up the development of China's bond market,reduce the cost of corporate bond issuance,and not allow the channel of corporate debt financing to be limited to the banking system,which will undoubtedly increase the bank.The risks of the financial system.(2)From the descriptive statistics,due to the large difference in assetliability ratios of different industries,relevant government departments should consider de-leverage,stable leverage and leverage decision-making according to the specific conditions of different industries and enterprises.To avoid inappropriate policies that adversely affect businesses and the industry.The innovation of this thesis is to introduce the Altman Z value on the basis of foreign literature,establish the corresponding model,and further study the influencing factors of the target capital structure of the enterprise by using the system GMM method;according to different degree of leverage and different securities issuance,In the case of resale,the enterprise is subdivided into four categories.From the perspective of corporate financing choice behavior,the strength of capital structure adjustment is examined,and the research perspective is relatively new.