A Study On The Impact Of The Basic Pension Insurance On China Migrants Consumption

The consumption of the migrants is not only an important driver of the economic development of the inflowing land,but also an important indicator to measure the level of social integration in the inflowing place.Under the current policy of “promoting the formation of a strong domestic market and continuously releasing the potential of domestic demand”,how to stimulate the consumption potential of 241 million migrants has important practical significance.Therefore,this paper cuts through the problem of the impact of basic old-age insurance on the consumption of migrants,explores the formation mechanism of migrants consumption,and proposes countermeasures for improving the basic old-age insurance system and improving the consumption level of migrants.In theory,income is the material basis of consumption,but it is not the only factor that affects consumption.Social security,as a “safety net” for people's lives and a “booster” for economic development,will also have an important impact on consumption.As an important part of social security,pension insurance has attracted much attention since the Feldstein proposed an extended life cycle model.According to the theory of preventive saving motivation,the role of pension insurance is to reduce the uncertainty of the future by reducing the income of workers in their old age.According to the life cycle theory,the main role of pension insurance is to smooth the consumption of the entire life cycle.That is to say,the current payment will crowd out consumption,while the future treatment will increase consumption.This paper uses the 2016 China Labor – Force Dynamics Survey data to focus on the migrants' groups participating in non-agricultural work in the process of urbanization.Using multiple linear regression and biased score matching methods to examine the impact of basic pension insurance on the inflow of migrants.And its mechanism of action,with a view to providing feasible policy recommendations for improving the basic pension insurance system for migrants and increasing the consumption level of the migrants.The main research findings of this paper are:First,the basic pension insurance coverage rate of the migrants is low.There is a significant difference in consumption between the two migrants' groups with or without urban employees' basic pension insurance.In the survey sample,the participation rate of basic pension insurance for urban employees was 35.8%,and the participation rate for basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents was 29.99%.In addition to the housing consumption expenditure,the consumption level of the basic pension insurance migrants of the urban employees is significantly higher than that of the uninsured migrant population;and between the migrants' groups with basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents.There is no significant difference in consumption.Second,the basic pension insurance for urban employees can significantly increase the consumption level of the migrants,and the increase in consumption levels mainly comes from basic consumption expenditures.The human capital consumption and housing consumption expenditure of the migrants have not been significantly affected,in addition to the basic pension for urban and rural residents.Insurance does not have a significant impact on the consumption of migrants.The basic regression results show that under the same conditions,the basic pension insurance for urban employees will increase the average consumption level of the migrants by 9.6% and the basic consumption expenditure level by 14.4%.Considering the non-randomness of participation,this paper uses the propensity score matching method to solve the self-selection problem caused by unobservable factors.The results show that the positive effect of urban employees' basic pension insurance on the consumption of migrants is still very stable.Third,there is a difference in the impact of urban employees' basic pension insurance on the consumption of migrants among different migrants' groups.Specifically,in the new generation of migrants groups,the migrants groups with urban residents' willingness to stay,the cities where the inflowing places are large and mega-cities,and the middleand low-level mobile population groups,the basic pension insurance for urban employees is The positive effect is more significant;in the low-income migrants group,urban employees' basic pension insurance has a restraining effect on consumption.Fourth,the basic pension insurance for urban employees has two main channels for improving the level of consumption expenditure of the migrants,the identity effect and the income effect,and the income effect dominates.On the one hand,because participating in the basic pension insurance for urban employees is linked to the enjoyment of inflowing urban services,the enrollment will increase the probability that the migrants will choose to settle in the future by 47.5%,and the willingness to settle in the future will make the consumption level of the migrants get Significantly increased.On the other hand,participating in the basic pension insurance for urban employees can significantly increase the income level of the migrants,while a good income level lays a solid material foundation for improving the consumption level of the migrants.Based on the above empirical research conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations to improve the consumption of migrants from the aspects of expanding the coverage of urban employees' basic pension insurance and improving relevant supporting policies.First,orderly expand the coverage of urban employees' basic pension insurance policies and stimulate the consumption potential of the migrants.Secondly,according to the characteristics and needs of different groups of people,adapting to local conditions,accurately participating in insurance,increasing the human capital accumulation of migrants through multiple channels and reducing the burden of corporate social security contributions,raising the income level of migrants,and enhancing the sustainability of migrants' consumption growth.Thirdly,we must do a good job in the transfer and continuation of the basic pension insurance for urban employees across the overall planning area,and realize the national overall planning of basic old-age insurance as soon as possible,so as to avoid the worries of migrants' participation and enhance consumer confidence.Finally,we will promote the reform of the household registration system,improve the supply side reform of public services,gradually decouple the household registration system from public services,and relax the consumption constraints of the migrants.This paper will help to better understand the impact of basic old-age insurance on the consumption of migrants and its mechanism of action,thus providing an exploratory way to improve the consumption of the migrants and promote the construction of a strong domestic market.