An Analysis Of The Investment Value Of Chinese Internet Monetary Fund Under GARCH Family Model

In recent years,Chinese Internet finance has risen rapidly under the impetus of the real economy.With the emergence of Yu'ebao in 2013 as a symbol,it has led Internet money fund financial management products to officially enter people's vision.It has high returns and relatively low risk.Features have attracted much attention and have become a popular cash management tool.However,the good times are not long.The return rate of the Internet currency fund has continued to decline after 2014,and the high returns of the past have ceased to exist.With the ensuing questions and concerns of investors,the declining returns have been exposed.The issue of risk has also gradually attracted people's attention,and suspicions about whether Internet money funds still have investment value have puzzled many investors.Therefore,the research significance of this article is to give targeted suggestions on several issues that customers care about when choosing financial products,and to provide feasibility guidance on product innovation,management and operation for platforms that operate Internet financial products,and finally in the government with the assistance of the regulators,they are constantly developing and jointly building a harmonious and stable financial market order.First of all,this article analyzes the development status,characteristic advantages,and operation mechanism of Internet wealth management products,and makes a qualitative discussion and summary of benefits and risks.The conclusion is that the return sequence of Internet money funds does not obey the normal distribution,showing a skewed distribution with a peak and a long tail extending tothe right,and its distribution chart shows that there are more obvious spikes,fat tails,and agglomeration trends;secondly,To measure the risk of Internet money fund financial products,that is,the empirical part of this article,the research method used is a comparative analysis method,introducing a redemption-type on-site money fund as a reference,and combining the ARMA model with the GARCH family model.The two types of money fund financial products selected in this paper are compared for the effect of fitting under different distribution conditions,that is,the GARCH family model is established under the conditions of Normal distribution,t distribution,and GED distribution,respectively,and the most suitable model is determined.The test results also show that the fitting effect of the GARCH family model is outstanding,and it can capture the characteristics of the spikes and fat tails and the accumulation of volatility in the fund return sequence.The VaR value is calculated based on the model with the best fitting effect,and the calculated VaR value is analyzed by using the fund performance assessment index to analyze the investment value of Internet money fund financial products in the new situation.Based on the VaR value calculated in this paper,an Adjusted-sharp indicator is established,which is combined with the average rate of return to comprehensively consider the performance of the Internet Monetary Fund.The comparison shows that measuring the performance of a fund can not only start from the dimension of the return rate,but also consider the risk factors,because it is often the size of the risk that determines the level of performance.Because investors pay attention to the potential loss risk of funds when investing in funds,the Adjusted-sharp indicator based on VaR is more reference value for investors;finally,the results of the analysis are used to analyze and confirm that Internet money fund financial management products in these years The change in returns and risks was due to changes in market interest rates caused by continued easing of policies.The conclusion of this article shows that under the background of declining returns,the differences between the returns and risk values of the two types of funds are relatively large.Internet moneyfunds are better than application-type redemption floor money funds in terms of income,risk,or fund performance.At the end of the article,suggestions are made from three perspectives.First,the major Internet wealth management platforms must be optimized and upgraded,constantly improve the platform's operating mechanism,continue to innovate in the design of wealth management products,and actively cooperate with the supervision of relevant departments.Attention should be paid to product information disclosure and fund scale.Control will inevitably provide investors with better products and services.Second,at the government level,while Internet finance is developing rapidly,efforts must be made to improve the relevant rating system for internet financial wealth management platforms and products,unify rating standards,and maintain supervision and management.Attach great importance to and continue to increase investment in resources.Finally,as investors,we must start with our own investment needs,match our investment needs with financial products,and learn to analyze the key factors such as the returns,risks,scales,and investment durations of different financial products.Factors,choose the investment product that suits you,and don't blindly follow the investment behavior of others.