Research On The Impact Of Pulp Futures On Stock Price Of Listed Companies In Paper Products Industry

At 9 a.m.on November 27,2018,the 50 th commodity futures variety in China's futures market,pulp futures,was officially listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.The listing of pulp futures helps promote the formation of market prices for paper products,makes relevant price information more transparent,and has higher pricing efficiency,which is also a great benefit for related paper product listed companies.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to discuss whether there exists any influence of pulp futures and how much influence the pulp futures have on stock price fluctuation of listed companies in related industries since pulp futures have been listing for more than one year,which is beneficial to the investment choice of stock market investors as well as the improvement of relevant system design.This article first reviews the relevant literature from the perspective of the price discovery function of the futures market and the mutual relationship between the futures market and the stock market,and then makes a more detailed analysis of the development status of listed companies in the pulp and paper futures and paper products industries.Then it analyzes the relevant theories and transmission paths of pulp futures prices affecting the stock prices of listed companies in the industry.It is pointed out that pulp futures prices will not only affect the stock prices of listed companies in the industry through cost adjustment effects and substitution effects,but also exert influence through such financial market paths as changes in investment portfolios,herding effects and so on.On this basis,this paper does two empirical analyses: First,it selects the pulp futures price index,the paper product industry stock price index,and the stock price of the industry's representative listed company—YUEYANG FOREST&PAPER,which passes the ADF test,and uses empirical methods such as the Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,VAR model,and VEC model to conduct an empirical analysis of the changes in stocks of listed paper products before and after the listing of pulp futures so as to determine whether the listing of pulp futures has changed the stock price movements of listed paper products.Second,it selects the pulp futures price index and the stock price of YUEYANG FOREST&PAPER,a company that is representative of the industry,and uses the GARCH(1,1)model test method to test the stock price volatility of listed companies before and after the listing of pulp futures.Through empirical research,it is found that the change of pulp futures price will have an impact on the stock price of listed companies in the paper products industry,and the price of pulp futures has a certain guiding effect on the price of stocks in the industry,which has a more obvious impact on the stock price of individual companies.After the launch of pulp futures,the stock price volatility of the relevant companies decreased,but its impact was limited.At last,the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to optimize the investment of investors by using the price discovery function of pulp futures,and how to perfect the product design and system arrangement of pulp futures.