Study On Risk Securitization Of Flood Catastrophe Insurance In Huaihe River Basin

The Huaihe river basin is located in the climatic transition zone between north and south of China,and the possibility of meteorological disasters is relatively high.In recent years,affected by climate warming,environmental degradation and other factors,floods and waterlogging disasters in the basin are more frequent,and also bring a large number of economic losses and casualties.Compared with the traditional catastrophe risk diversification mechanism,the catastrophe insurance risk securitization can reduce the limitation of its underwriting capacity under the traditional reinsurance model,and at the same time,it has lower credit risk and can provide higher value for insurance companies.Therefore,the Huaihe river basin can use the securitization of flood catastrophe insurance risk as an effective way to disperse flood catastrophe risk.This paper firstly declares the background and significance of this research,then sorts out foreign and domestic literatures and points out methods inovations and shortcomings.The second part mainly analyzes and summarizes the related contents of catastrophe insurance securitization,describes the main characteristics of catastrophe risk,compares related catastrophe risk securitization products,and analyzes the operation mode of catastrophe bond.The third part is to analyze the current situation of the Huaihe river effects disaster risk description,this paper mainly introduces the Huaihe river flood risk situation,describe the Huaihe river basin is introduced into effects the necessity and feasibility of catastrophe bonds,at the same time that the Huaihe river basin development effects catastrophe insurance securitization are faced with the problem,make theoretical foil for the next step of the empirical analysis;The fourth part is based on the research theory of catastrophe risk bond pricing model,and it selects the summary data of economic losses caused by flood disasters in four provinces(Henan,Jiangsu,Anhui and Shandong)in the Huaihe river basin from 1994 to 2018 for empirical research.Finally,the fifth part is the conclusion and countermeasures.The research results and conclusions of this paper are as follows:first,in terms of theoretical analysis,this paper proves that the risk securitization of flood and catastrophe insurance is an effective way to solve the flood and catastrophe risk problem in the Huaihe river basin.Therefore,flood and catastrophe bonds can be reasonably implemented in the Huaihe river basin.Second,in terms of empirical research,this article firstly by using SPSS software to query to the Huaihe river floods to treat the direct economic loss of data analysis and get the sample mainly descriptive statistical variable,by fitting the sample data,it is concluded that the Huaihe river floods in 1994-2018 direct economic loss of data is subject to the lognormal distribution of the parameters for them (?),and then calculate the incidence of the Huaihe river flood losses throughout the years,using the CAPM pricing model,the Huaihe river basin effects under different types of catastrophe bonds coupon,Finally,the multi-period discounted cash flow model is taken as an example(assuming n=3)to determine the prices of different types of flood catastrophe bonds;Third,in view of the problems in the insurance market,capital market and external environment of developing the securitization of flood and catastrophe insurance in the Huaihe river basin,it is proposed to improve the reinsurance market of flood and flood disaster,strengthen the publicity,improve the residents'overall insurance awareness,and establish an efficient development mechanism of securitization of catastrophe insurance risk.We will improve the development system of the capital market and establish authoritative catastrophe risk assessment institutions and credit rating agencies in China.Suggestions on perfecting the laws and regulations corresponding to the development of catastrophe insurance risk securitization,strengthening the market supervision and strengthening the training of catastrophe insurance securitization professionals.