The Mechanism Analysis Of The Effect Of Price And Technological Progress On Economic Fluctuation In Resource-based Regions

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has achieved rapid growth.,and the development of national economy promotes the continuous increase of energy demand.In order to meet the demand of economic development for energy,the state vigorously supports the development of resource-based industries.As a typical resource-based province,Shanxi Province regards the development of coal industry as its strategic core for a long time,which contributes indelibly to the economic development of our country while realizing its own economic development.However,with the saturation of international and domestic coal market demand,the decline in coal prices and the economic situation,the originally hot coal market suddenly entered the winter period,and the economy of Shanxi was severely impacted.The economic development mode of traditional coal resource-based areas has not adapted to the development of new economy,so it is imperative to change the development mode.However,due to the fluctuation of coal price,Shanxi's coal enterprises will continue to invest more profits into the coal industry to expand production when the income is high,but they are unwilling to develop technology for transformation.But when the price of coal is low and the market is depressed,the enterprises are hard to transform because of the shortage of funds and lack of technology,which makes the enterprises face great pressure in the process of transformation.However,the technological progress,as the key to the transformation,failed to form a new economic growth point to support the economic transformation in the key stage of Shanxi transformation.Based on this phenomenon,this paper combs a lot of literature about the impact of price and technological progress on economic fluctuation,and finds that the former literature did not integrate these two factors into one model to explain when analyzing the two situations.And in the study of economic fluctuation in resource-based areas,Chinese scholars often use only one resource product price as an explanatory variable.However,resource-based regional economy often has a variety of resource industries,and each resource industry will drive the development of a series of related industries in the region.Therefore,in order to better explain the impact of the overall price level on the resource-based regional economy,this paper innovatively studies the impact of the overall output price level on economic fluctuations in resource-based regions.At the same time,the two influential factors of price and technology are integrated into a theoretical model to better explain the influence of price and technology on economic fluctuations.First of all,this paper constructs an economic theoretical model to analyze the co-action mechanism of price and technology changes on economic fluctuation,and deduces the key equation of the two effects on economic fluctuation.Then,There are static expectations and rational expectations.Taking Shanxi's data as an example,the time series threshold regression model and Chow test two econometric model methods are used to verify the theoretical results and analyze the effects of price fluctuation and technological progress on Shanxi's economic fluctuation from the perspective of whole and stage.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,the following conclusions are obtained:(1)The theoretical model analysis shows that the price level of resource-based regions dominated by resource-based industries will deviate from the overall price level of the whole country.Under the static expectation,the expected changes in the overall price level of the whole country will remain unchanged,and the economic fluctuation will be completely affected by the price level fluctuation in resource-based regions.When the rational expectation,the price level of resource-based regions and the overall price level of the country will produce deviation.When the deviation difference of price change is positive,enterprises in this region expand production;On the contrary,when the deviation difference of price change is negative,the enterprise will reduce production,which will lead to economic fluctuation.Technological progress will also have a direct impact on resource-based regional economic fluctuations,which is basically consistent with the actual economic cycle theory.(2)The results of empirical analysis show that the static expectation is more in line with the actual economic situation of Shanxi.The results show that:from 1978 to 1993,due to the planned economy,the price has no obvious effect on Shanxi's economic fluctuation,which is mainly caused by technological progress.From 1994 to 2007,under the market economy,price became the main factor of Shanxi's economic fluctuation.The influence of technological progress on economic fluctuation was weak.Shanxi's economic growth depended more on the rise of resource price than on technological progress.Since the 2008 financial crisis,the impact of price on Shanxi's economic fluctuation has weakened,and technological progress has became the main factor that causes economic fluctuation and promotes economic growth.(3)Based on the theory and empirical analysis of Shanxi Province,under the complete market,the greater impact of the price of resource-based regional economic fluctuations than technological progress,show the enterprise development rely more on price movements rather than technical progress,This leads to the solidification of the industrial structure in resource-based areas,backward technological progress,and market failure,which requires active regulation by the government.The innovation of this paper is to build a theoretical model of economic fluctuation which considers the price level and technological progress together,combining the theory of monetary economic cycle and the theory of actual economic cycle,to analyze the mechanism of the price level and technological progress in resource-based areas on economic fluctuation,and to deduce the key equation of the two functions.Then,taking Shanxi's data as an example,there are static expectations and rational expectations.The economy of Shanxi Province is analyzed by two econometric models: time series threshold regression model and Chow test.Put forward the necessity and path for the government to take the initiative to adjust the economic transformation.