Study About The Influence Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On Skill-biased Technological Progress

Under the double background of international trade protectionism rising continuously,promoting China's high-quality technological progress is the main way to break the foreign technology monopoly and realize the high-quality and stable economic development.Technical progress is biased,and the realization of technical progress based on skill bias is an important way to achieve high-quality technical progress in China.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the influence of trade policy uncertainty on skills-biased technological progress.This paper constructs a two-sector model of a country and systematically discusses the influence mechanism,long and short term effect and influence path of trade policy uncertainty on skill-biased technological progress.At the same time,based on Chinese social comprehensive survey(CGSS)data from 2003 to 2015,using empirical inspection system GMM method,through the analysis of China after WTO at the end of 2001,the trade policy uncertainty decline in domestic skills to model the influence of the technological progress,and then introduced under the condition of the trade policy uncertainty increased,the domestic type should be how to implement skills to technological progress.Finally,put forward the relevant policy recommendations.On the whole,after China's accession to WTO,the uncertainty of trade policy shows a declining trend.The decline of uncertainty of trade policy significantly improves the level of domestic skill premium and significantly inhibits the level of skill demand structure.After considering the impact of the decline in uncertainty of trade policy in the long and short term,it is found that in the short term,both the skill premium and the structure level of skill demand increase significantly.In the long run,the level of skill premium has not changed significantly,while the level of skill demand structure has declined significantly.The results of sub-sample regression show that the difference of GDP per capita,urbanization level and institutional quality level in each region will affect the mechanism of trade policy uncertainty on skill-biased technological progress.Path by which to further examine the trade policy uncertainty affect skill type to technological progress,in this paper,by adjusting the effect with the mediation effect respectively to investigate the domestic financial and trade,foreign direct investment,such as path mechanism,found that trade policy uncertainty as the financial volatility and financial agglomeration degree of change,influencing skills to type technology progress;The decline of trade policy uncertainty will affect the trade dependence and FDI,and then have a corresponding impact on the technical progress of skill bias.Combined with the actual situation of labor force polarization and interregional heterogeneity that may exist in the domestic labor market,this paper decomposed the indicators of skill-biased technology progress from vertical and horizontal dimensions,and deeply explored the impact of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the technical progress of heterogeneous skill-biased technology.The results show that the decline of trade policy uncertainty will lead to the phenomenon of labor polarization at the level of skill premium and have a significant impact on the technological progress of interregional heterogeneous skill bias.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions according to the mechanism of trade policy uncertainty affecting skill-biased technological progress: adhere to opening up and introduce foreign advanced technologies;Adhere to the innovation-driven strategy,improve the ability of independent innovation;Relaxing restrictions on the financial and administrative powers of local governments;To prevent and defuse systemic financial risks and reduce financing constraints of enterprises;Improving the business environment and facilitating trade and investment;Each region shall adopt measures in accordance with its local conditions to promote the optimization and upgrading of its internal industrial structure.