Comparative Study Of Local Debt Risk Between Provinces In China

In China's macroeconomic field,the problem of local debt risk has always been a "big problem",in recent years,the central government has issued a series of policy documents restricting local governments' borrowing,but the problem of local debt risk has not been solved.At present,china's economic development has entered a new normal,the economic environment is under pressure to continue to slow down,the overall expansion of local debt is large and still expanding,and the debt scale is obviously larger than its own comprehensive financial revenue strength,plus stock debt,the debt service burden is heavy,the solvency is relatively weak,as a result,the risk of local debt is increasingly apparent and sharply increased,how to effectively control the risk of local debt is a prominent problem faced by local governments at all levels.This study starts with the review of domestic and foreign research status of local debt risk,based on the definition of core concepts and the analysis of relevant theories,based on the current situation of local debt risk in China,based on the mining of local debt risk assessment indicators in the existing research results,follow the ideas of index primary selection,expert evaluation recurrence and cluster analysis selection,build a local debt risk assessment system,on this basis,select the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the central government)in 2018,factor analysis is used to compare and forewarn the risk of local debt between provinces,put forward some suggestions on the prevention and resolution of local debt risk.This study can form a useful supplement to previous studies,understand the level of debt risk in different regions,it is conducive to helping provinces better prevent and resolve the risks of local debts,more scientific and systematic management of local debts,reduce the risk of debt expansion,so that local debts can serve social construction smoothly and efficiently.The results show that the provincial differences of local debt risk are obvious,among them,Tibet,Chongqing,Jiangxi,Tianjin,Hubei and other provinces have lower local debt risk,Yunnan,Guizhou,Liaoning,Qinghai and Inner Mongolia have higher local debt risk;among them,the risk of local debt is in 19 provinces and cities of light police district,there are 7 provinces and cities without police area,2 provinces and cities in the Central Police District and the heavy police district respectively,and 3 provinces the mega police district.On the whole,the provincial differences of local debt risk are large,but local debt risk in most provinces and cities is low or light,within the overall control range,but the risk of local debt in some provinces and cities is high.Through comparison and analysis,we can find that,at present,the debt risk of local governments in China is related to the lag of regional economic development,the role of local debt in promoting regional economic growth has been significantly weakened,the economic development of provinces and cities with high risk of local debt has been or may fall into a "bottleneck period",over borrowing by local governments will further increase the local debt burden,to prevent and resolve the risks of local debts in China,it is suggested that should gradually change the pattern of borrowing to promote growth,to promote the balanced development of regional economy,should increase the transfer payment of government finance,local governments should give full play to the guiding role and amplification effect of debt funds,need to further improve the regulatory mechanism of debt risk.