Research On Credit Risk Of Online Supply Chain Financing Based On Automobile Industry

In recent years,SMEs have developed rapidly and become the main force of the national economy,contributing to 60% of China’s total industrial output value,50% of the tax revenue and 80% of the urban employment.In order to effectively solve the problem of financing difficulties for SMEs,core enterprises and their upstream and downstream SMEs cooperate in operation through the supply chain model.With the development of Internet and financial technology,"offline operation" has been transformed into "online integration",and online supply chain financing has become a new trend of financial innovation.At present,China’s online supply chain financing business is regarded by commercial banks as the strategic direction of future development and a new business growth point.Some large state-owned banks and jointequity commercial banks have made positive progress in online supply chain financing.As a capital-intensive industry with a large industrial scale and complex industrial structure,the automobile industry has become the pioneer force of online supply chain financing.From the perspective of commercial banks,there are very important practical needs for credit risk research and index system construction of online supply chain financing.Reasonable identification and assessment of online supply chain financial credit risk is the proposition that commercial banks should first consider when operating the online supply chain financing.This paper first introduces the research status of online supply chain financing,including domestic and foreign research review and online supply chain financing model,the second part introduces the online supply chain financial credit risk evaluation related theory,including the theoretical basis and evaluation model.Then,through literature review and questionnaire survey,19 indicators affecting credit risk of online supply chain financing were selected.In the empirical study,data of relevant enterprises in the automobile industry from 2016 to 2018 were selected,and principal component analysis was carried out on the selected indicators.Seven principal components were extracted,and the final logistic model was obtained through regression analysis.Finally,the original data operation model is used to verify the accuracy of the online supply chain financing credit risk assessment model.The results show that the credit risk evaluation system in this paper has a high prediction accuracy,which is of practical significance to the study of online supply chain financial credit risk.At the same time,core enterprise strength plays an important role in influencing the default rate of SMEs,SMEs’ management and debt paying ability,logistics ability and platform supervision ability,and SMEs’ operation ability also have a great impact on online supply chain financial credit risk.In addition,since the data sources of SMEs selected in this paper are mainly the downstream dealers of core enterprises,this model is more in line with the pre-payment supply chain finance model,which can provide reference for the sales channel financing of core enterprises.Finally,this paper gives some suggestions for commercial banks to guard against online supply chain financial credit risk from three aspects: SMEs,core enterprises and the whole supply chain.