Research On The Effectiveness Of Chinese Monetary Policy And Macro-prudential Policy Coordination

The financial crisis erupted from the United States in 2007-2008.This financial crisis quickly spread to the whole world,which led to the outbreak of the international financial crisis.The recession of the world economy and the turmoil of the financial market have swept the world,making the world feel the financial crisis Great horror.These series of events have also made the global financial regulatory authorities deeply aware of the importance of preventing and controlling systemic financial risks,and have also triggered reforms and discussions on financial regulation in various countries.The attention that has been received in the traditional risk system in the past has been relatively small systemic risk,which has become another focus of attention in the financial field today.At present,the current regulatory system's response to systemic risk is unanimously considered to be the most effective way to Choosing to strengthen macro-prudential supervision,therefore,naturally,many countries have begun to build a management framework,and the financial regulatory agencies of various countries have been responsible for maintaining financial stability.At this stage,China has entered a new economic normal,the corresponding financial market and its development are also in the stage of continuous deepening development,and China's monetary authority has the dual responsibility of preventing and controlling systemic risks and adjusting the country's economic structure.The Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China formally proposed a "two-pillar regulation framework." Because macro-prudential policy is an important macro-financial control policy that is relatively new and relatively new to monetary policy.This article sorts out these two policies,especially the development of macroprudential policy,the corresponding basic theory and related literature,and further studies and analyzes the coordination of the two policy objectives and implementation through empirical research.In this paper,by establishing a Bayesian mixing vector autoregressive model(BMF-VAR)to study the coordination of the goals of the two policies;using co-integration vector autoregressive model and error correction model(VECM)from the entity The economic perspective studies the effectiveness of the coordination of these two policies.Since the traditional method requires consistent data frequency,if all quarterly data are selected,some monthly data need to be discarded.In order to improve this problem,this paper uses Bayesian mixing vector autoregressive model(BMF-VAR)to study the coordination of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy objectives.The BMF-VAR model is established based on monthly data and quarterly data,and the model parameters are estimated through the MATLAB program,and the analysis effect of the VAR model(that is,the quarterly vector autoregressive model)under the same frequency data is compared,and an empirical analysis is carried out to obtain the correlation Conclusion.As far as the BMF-VAR model is concerned,from the comparison between the impulse response of the BMF-VAR model and the impulse response of the quarterly vector autoregressive model,it can be seen that the impulse response impulse is stronger and the bandwidth is narrower,which means that the model 's The accuracy of the estimate increases accordingly.It shows that strengthening the supervision of high-frequency data will help to better supervise the financial system at a macro level.The third chapter of this article uses the BMF-VAR model to illustrate that China 's monetary policy needs to consider financial stability to achieve the goal of price stability.Asset price changes are the cause of price instability,and this is also the main factor that leads to a decline in financial stability.Among them,the fluctuation of asset prices in China represents that fluctuations in real estate prices have a significant impact,and is the main factor for rising prices.In the long run,the increase in the growth rate of real estate prices is one of the factors that promote the increase in the growth rate of CPI,but the increase in the growth rate of real estate prices is not the main reason for the continued rise in price increases.It may be related to the introduction and implementation of housing price regulation policies.The rise in credit growth is one of the main factors for the rise in CPI growth.Finally,economic fluctuations will accelerate the speed of price adjustments.All of this shows that monetary policy must achieve the goal of price stability,and financial stability factors related to macro-prudential policies must be considered.The recognition of the coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy objectives is an important factor affecting the institutional setting and institutional arrangement of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.In this paper,the establishment of the co-integration vector autoregressive model and the error correction model(VECM)will be used to empirically study the effectiveness of the coordination of these two policies from the perspective of the real economy.The two types of policies have complementary effects.The transmission mechanism of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy are similar.In specific different environments,in multiple channels of influence,especially through the liquidity and security of financial institutions There is an interactive relationship between sex and credit to have an impact on the macro economy.The research in this paper shows that there is a co-integration relationship between M2 growth rate,LTV(loan value ratio)and GDP growth rate;there is a co-integration relationship between the deposit reserve interest rate and LTV and GDP growth rate;capital adequacy ratio,LTV and GDP growth rate There is a co-integration relationship between speed.The deposit reserve ratio of large institutions and the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks,by paying attention to the safety and liquidity of financial institutions,have a positive impact on GDP growth in the short term,but will inhibit economic development in the long run.The loan-to-value ratio restricts borrowers.If the loans are relaxed and the proportion of real estate loans increases,then consumers 'highly leveraged real estate debt is not conducive to economic development.Therefore,regarding the management structure,the implementation of relevant policies requires authoritative and effective financial supervision to coordinate and coordinate the management of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.This paper studies the current situation in China,combined with relevant international experience,and further puts forward countermeasures and suggestions that are in line with China's actual conditions.