Research On Monetary Policy,Inventory Adjustment And Time-Varying Causes Of Inflation

Inflation has always been one of the themes of macroeconomics.In recent years,the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model has gradually become an important theoretical basis for the study of inflation,providing a strong theoretical support for the central bank to formulate and implement monetary policy.The development of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve provides a consistent theoretical framework for empirical macroeconomists to study the relationship between inflation dynamics and macroeconomic variables.As economic globalization advances and the internal and external economic environment evolves,the formation process and influencing factors of inflation are not static.It is necessary to clarify the influence mechanism of internal and external factors on inflation from a dynamic perspective and explore the macro policy control from the new stage characteristics of macroeconomy.However,under the traditional constant coefficient framework,It is impossible to characterize the current cause of inflation and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China.Therefore,it is important to examine the time-varying cause of China's inflation and the existence of monetary policy inventory channels based on the extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve theoretical model and the empirical model of the timevarying parameter structure vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVSVAR).This paper introduces internal and external factors such as monetary policy and inventory adjustment into the New Keynesian Phillips curve,and constructs a dynamic economic system.Then we use TVP-SV-SVAR model to explore the time-varying causes of inflation in China in 2005-2018,and test the existence of inventory channels in transmission of monetary policy.First,based on the relationship between monetary policy,inventory adjustment and inflation,this paper combs the transmission path of monetary policy affecting inventory adjustment and inventory adjustment influencing inflation,and constructs an inflation-determined dynamic economic system based on the expanded New Keynesian Phillips Curve.Secondly,the traditional constant coefficient linear vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to estimate the dynamic economic system.It is found that the impulse response results do not conform to the economic theory,indicating that the traditional linear model has defects.Finally,the TVP-SV-SVAR model was used to estimate the dynamic economic system based on the BDS nonlinear test,and the results of the model estimation and the results of the two types of impulse response functions are analyzed.Through empirical research on the dynamic economic model of inflation,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)Demand factors have the largest effect on inflation,followed by exchange rate factors,followed by cost factors,inventory factors,and monetary policy factors.(2)The impact of demand shocks on the positive pull of inflation is relatively stable and has the largest impact in the medium run;exchange rate shocks have a strong negative effect on inflation in the short and medium run,but they will gradually decay and become positive in the long run;cost shocks has a negative effect on inflation in the short and medium run,and it has a positive effect on inflation in the long run;inventory adjustment has a positive effect on inflation in the short and medium run,and it has a negative effect on inflation in the long run;Price-type monetary policy has a strong suppressive effect on inflation in the short term,and has become a driving force in the long run.(3)The channels through which monetary policy affects inflation are mainly cost channels in the short run,exchange rate channels in the short and long run,and inventory channels in the short,medium and long run.China has monetary policy inventory channels,and inventory adjustments buffer the impact of monetary policy on inflation.(4)The regulation and control effect of price-type monetary policy is remarkable,and the quantitative-type monetary policy has a relatively small regulating effect on inflation.