Study On The Influencing Factors Of Non-performing Loans Of China's Commercial Banks And Regional Differentiation

GDP growth rate of China has started to fall since 2012,with growth rates of 7.9%,7.8%,7.3%,6.9%,6.7%,6.8%,and 6.6% in 2012-2018,respectively.It is a fundamental shift in the stage of economic growth.It means bidding farewell to the history of rapid economic growth,and the development of China's economy entered into the “new normal” stage,step into the economic growth shift period and the development momentum conversion period.Economy thriving and finance thriving;Economy strong and finance strong.Today downward pressure on the economy has increased,the total non-performing loans have been rising;the non-performing loan ratio and non-performing loans of many provinces and cities in China have shown a double-rising trend,and the deterioration of commercial bank loan quality has appeared.The non-performing rates in economically developed regions such as Beijing,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,and Shanghai peaked.The non-performing rates in the northeast,north,and western provinces continued to deteriorate,and the regional differentiation of non-performing loans in commercial banks appeared.This paper compares and analyzes the status quo of non-performing loans of commercial banks in various provinces and cities through the cross-sectional data of 31 non-performing loans of commercial banks in various provinces and cities,and finds that non-performing loans show the trend of “higher northern an d lower south,east decline and west rise”: The non-performing loan ratio of North China and Northeast China continued to deteriorate.The non-performing loan ratios in Inner Mongolia and Liaoning province ranked first in the country,both of which exceede d 3.5% in 2017.Compared with the non-performing loan ratio in South China,which is controlled below 1.7%,the non-performing loan ratio is “higher in the north and lower in the south”.In 2017,the balance of non-performing loans and the non-performing loan ratio in the eastern coastal areas of Shanghai and Zhejiang showed a double decline.On the contrary,the non-performing loan balances and non-performing loans in the western regions such as Yunnan and Guizhou showed a double upward trend.Based on this situation,this paper takes the region as the research perspective,and selects economic indicators: GDP growth rate,regional industrial structure,economic development level,financial intervention,public finance income growth,and total assets of regional banking financial institutions as explanatory variables from 2013 to 2017,corresponding to the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks in provinces and cities as explained variable,and the panel regression model is established.Based on empirical analysis and quantitative analysis,the influence of the above explanatory variables on the regional differentiation of non-performing loans in commercial banks in China and the contribution rate are studied.Finally,through the above analysis,found that regional GDP growth,industrial structure,degree of government intervention and the economic level was correlated with non-performing loan ratio.Due to the regional development characteristics and industrial structure,The quality of credit assets of northeast,north and west region is especially susceptible the impact of the deleveraging and de production capacity.It is suggested to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in line with local conditions and optimize the regional financial environment and economic level to drive the growth of the real economy,thus improve the quality of commercial bank loans,prevent dissolve the major financial risks.Still need to strengthen economic ties and cooperation among regions,breaking up regional economic segmentation,promote coordinated development of regional economies,reduce and resolve non-performing loans through fostering a developed and robust real economy.