Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Peer-to-Peer Lending Based On Default Cost

In recent years,Internet Finance has been developing rapidly and the “Peer-to-Peer lending” has a suddenly rise.It provides the exchange of information,the platform for matching demands of small and medium-sized borrowers and investors,and promotes the development and perfection of the financial industry,but its inherent in relying on the Internet transaction form makes it contains a high credit risk.So,how to evaluate and control the credit risk of P2 P lending is becoming one of the important topics in the financial industry.This article begins from the credit system and the credit risk of the borrower,separates the factors affecting the performance for the two part of ability and willingness,refines and paraphrases the concept of the borrower's default cost,which is chosen as the focus of this article;after the analysis of the basic factors affecting the P2 P credit risk management,this dissertation screens factors affecting the cost of default from the perspective of the borrowers and summarizes thirteen dimensions of evaluation index system;factor analysis gives an index system of five common factors,which are introduced into the logistic regression model calculation and get the relationship and the regression equation among the arguments,public factors and the dependent variable;finally the dissertation take the experimental data into the equation to verify.The experimental results show that the equation discriminant success rate of whether borrowers default is as high as 96%,the default rate after model selection is about 0.35%,slightly lower than the "Renrendai" 2015 annual disclosure of bad debt rate,which shows that the model can effectively identify the potential borrower in default,the credit risk reduction effect significantly;and it proves that the credit risk management of P2 P lending from the perspective of the cost of default is feasible and effective,and raising the cost of default can effectively reduce the borrower default rate;the article finally points out the connection between the public factors and changes in the cost of default,and provides suggestions for improvement and further research direction for related interest parties.