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Study On Loan Risk Management Of Small And Micro Enterprises In A Agricultural Cooperation Bank Based On Logistic Model

Posted on:2020-11-16Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q Y LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330623959586Subject:Business administration
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Small and micro-enterprises play an important role in increasing tax revenue,creating jobs,stabilizing social order,promoting scientific and technological progress and promoting economic development.The state attaches great importance to and actively supports the development of small and micro-enterprises.In order to improve the innovative and entrepreneurial ability of small and micro enterprises,the state gives many preferential policies to small and micro enterprises in terms of taxation,supports various groups to set up small and micro enterprises,and helps enterprises to open up the market.Under the background of the new normal economy,with the development of domestic financial system reform and the gradual marketization of interest rates,domestic banks as a whole are facing unprecedented tremendous pressure,and the trend of industry competition is becoming more and more serious.At present,rural cooperative banks are facing the threat of comprehensive and powerful commercial banks and local banks with strong flexibility.With the expansion of commercial banks and local banks,how to establish a firm foothold in the fierce competitive environment? It is an urgent problem to exert the traditional advantages,expand the micro-finance business,strengthen the management of credit risk,and guarantee the safety of operation.Under the guidance of the relevant credit risk theory,this paper takes the loan risk management of small and micro-enterprises as the research object.Under the guidance of the relevant credit risk theory,this thesis comprehensively applies the literature research method,the Logistic empirical research method,the quantitative and qualitative analysis method and the case study method,and so on.This paper studies the loan credit risk of small and micro enterprises of A Rural Cooperative Bank,identifies and analyzes the main influencing factors in the process of loan credit risk,and quantifies the risk factors,and constructs the Logistic probability model.To evaluate the credit risk of small and micro-enterprise loans of the Agricultural Cooperation Bank.In addition,according to the survey data of the small and micro-enterprise loans of the Agricultural Cooperation Bank of A,based on the Logistic probability model,the probability of default on the loans of the small and micro-enterprises is measured and compared with the actual performance data of the small and micro-enterprises.The validity of the Logistic model is tested.The results show that the Logistic model established in this paper can predict the probability of default effectively;Assets / liabilities ratio,current ratio,Quick ratio,Cash flow / liability ratio,profit margin on sales,return on Total assets,turnover rate of current assets,ratio of assets to liabilities,profit margin on sales,return on Total assets,rate of turnover of assets,Inventory turnover rate and accounts receivable turnover rate are the key factors that affect the credit risk of small and micro enterprises.According to the development situation of small and micro enterprise loan business of A Agricultural Cooperation Bank,A Agricultural Cooperation Bank should establish credit rating mechanism,strengthen post-loan management,perfect loan guarantee system,and strengthen its own financial management.In order to improve their loan risk control capacity.
Keywords/Search Tags:Logistic Model, Small and Micro Enterprise, Loan Business, Risk Management
PDF Full Text Request
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